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2019 Arlington Million Guide: Preview, Odds, Selections, Bets, Watch

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2019 Arlington Million (G1)

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# Silks Horse Trainer / Jockey Odds
1 Robert Bruce C. Brown
J. Castellano
7-2
2 Magic Wand A. O’Brien
W. Lordan
5-1
3 Bricks and Mortar  C. Brown
I. Ortiz, Jr.
8-5
4 Catcho En Die N. Chatterpaul
S. Doyle
30-1
5 Hunting Horn A. O’Brien
R. Moore
12-1
6 The Great Day A. Delacour
T. McCarthy
12-1
7 Pivoine A. Balding
S. Sousa
15-1
8 Captivating Moon  C. Block
J. Valdivia, Jr.
20-1
9 Intellogent F. Chappet
F. Geroux
12-1
10 Bandua J. Sisterson
A. Beschizza
6-1

WATCH THE 2019 ARLINGTON MILLION LIVE & FREE

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2018 Race Replay

SUMMARY

The Arlington Million was the first thoroughbred race to offer a purse of US$1,000,000. It is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge series, and the winner automatically qualifies for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf.

The Arlington Million was introduced in 1981 by Joe Joyce, the dad of TVG’s Mike Joyce and the president of Arlington Park at the time. The winner receives 60% of the million-dollar purse and the Arlington Million Trophy. The race was graded after only its second running and was awarded a grade one status in 1983 based on the talent of the runners that raced in its first two years

Even with Bricks and Mortar’s presence, the Grade 1 Arlington Million still drew a healthy field size of 10 this year, with four European-based entries. While the competition looks overmatched on paper compared to the near-invincible form of Bricks and Mortar, in racing anything could still happen.

One other horse attracting attention is Robert Bruce, who won this race last year. Plus, familiar European-based runners Magic Wand and Hunting Horn ship over here again for trainer Aidan O’Brien, and Bandua carries the hopes of the local horses.

The Arlington Million’s post time is set for 6:12 p.m. CDT Saturday 10 August.

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FIELD

1. Robert Bruce, 7-2 (Fast Company – Chad Brown/Javier Castellano – 13: 8-2-0): The expected second choice gets to save all the ground with the rail post. Toss out his Fort Marcy Stakes (G3) flop, as he needed the race. The runner-up finish in the Manhattan Stakes (G1) is a better barometer of his ability. With that said, Bricks and Mortar still finished 1 ½ lengths ahead, which is a sizable margin on turf. But there is still the chance he improves in his third start off the layoff. Last years winner of this race. Main Danger.

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2. Magic Wand, 5-1 (Galileo – Aidan O’Brien/Wayne Lordan) – 16: 2-5-2): This filly has disappointed since winning at Royal Ascot last summer. In her most recent start, she finished a dismal 11th in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1). Her second in the Pegasus World Cup Turf to Bricks and Mortar earlier this year is credible, but she keeps losing. After the Pegasus, she ran fifth in the Dubai Sheema (G1) and third in the Man o’ War Stakes (G1), before runner-up finishes in the Wolferton Stakes and Pretty Polly (G1) in Europe. Hope

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3. Bricks and Mortar, 8-5 (Giants Causeway – Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 11: 9-0-2): How do bettors play against this horse? Since returning in December, he is undefeated with wins in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, Muniz Memorial Handicap (G2), Turf Classic Stakes (G1) and the Manhattan Stakes (G1). In most of those races, he looked clearly the best from a visual standpoint, and the small margin in the Muniz Memorial is forgivable because of the slow pace. Clear Top pick.

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4. Catcho En Die, 30-1 (Catcher in the Rye – Naipaul Chatterpaul/Sophie Doyle – 13: 5-1-1): With a ninth-place finish in the Manhattan, followed by an eighth in the United Nations Stakes (G1) against a weak field and an 11th in the Bowling Green Stakes (G2), it is hard to imagine why the connections want to run. Roughie.

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5. Hunting Horn, 12-1 (Camelot – Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore – 19: 2-2-5): In Europe, this is a constant also-ran for O’Brien. Sometimes he will pick up a minor check, as he did when running fourth in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes (G1) behind Crystal Ocean and Magical at Royal Ascot. On this soil in 2019, he ran fourth in the Man o’ War Stakes (G1) after setting a fast pace and third in the W.L. McKnight Stakes (G3). If he fires, a minor award is the limit. Place Best.

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6. The Great Day, 12-1 (Harlan’s Holiday – Arnaud Delacour/Trevor McCarthy – 13: 4-6-1): This one finished a decent second in the Arlington Handicap (G3), 1 ¾ lengths behind Bandua. But if that effort is his best, he cannot contend in the Arlington Million with Bandua entered again and better horses present as well. Hard to Have.

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7. Pivoine, 15-1 (Redoute’s Choice – Andrew Balding/Silvestre De Sousa – 19: 6-0-1): Some bettors might find a new European invader intriguing, but his overall class is lower than Magic Wand or Hunting Horn. Even though he won the Diamond Jubilee Cup in his most recent start, no real competition ran against him. Pivoine also tried the Gordon Richards Stakes (G3) and Al Rayyan Stakes (G3) earlier this year and finished sixth and fourth in those two races respectively. Not for Me.

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8. Captivating Moon, 20-1 (Malibu Moon – Chris Block/Jose Valdivia Jr. – 14: 2-6-4): His third-place effort in the Arlington Handicap, 3 ¾ lengths behind Bandua, will not cut it against this group. In his only other start at the Grade 1 level, he ran fifth in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) on this card last year. Looks Tough.

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9. Intellogent, 12-1 (Intello – Fabrice Chappet/Florent Geroux – 11: 3-1-2): The other new European face finished fourth in the Prix d’Ispahan (G1). Although the race is labeled as a Group 1, it is not a “true” Group 1 as the winner Zabeel Prince went on to finish seventh in the Prince of Wales’s, eighth in the Coral-Eclipse (G1) and seventh in the Sussex Stakes (G1). Earlier this year, Intellogent also finished last in the Prix Ganay Stakes (G1), 13 ¼ lengths behind Waldgeist. Place Hope.

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10. Bandua, 6-1 (The Factor – Jack Sisterson/Adam Beschizza – 12: 3-1-1): Bandua did look sharp winning the Arlington Handicap, but who did he beat? None of the big names from the Manhattan were present, making the race a bit of a cakewalk. With that said, Bandua’s sixth in the Manhattan is better than it looks as he chased a fast pace. He is still young and improving. Not Hopeless.

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WATCH THE 2019 ARLINGTON MILLION LIVE & FREE

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SELECTIONS

3. Bricks and Mortar,

10. Bandua,

1. Robert Bruce,

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BETS

3. Bricks and Mortar, On the nose / straight out!

 

WATCH THE 2019 ARLINGTON MILLION LIVE & FREE

Sunday 05 May 2019 – RSN Expert Tips

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Matt Hill

Bendigo, 5th May 2019

Race: 1 Selections: 6, 9, 8, 1
Race: 2 Selections: 10, 7, 5, 14
Race: 3 Selections: 6, 1, 8, 11
Race: 4 Selections: 5, 4, 3, 2
Race: 5 Selections: 2, 5, 8, 4
Race: 6 Selections: 7, 11, 1, 6
Race: 7 Selections: 10, 12, 6, 1
Race: 8 Selections: 2, 8, 5, 3

BEST – Race 3 – 6. Irish Charger

 

BET EASY 50 : 200

Warren Huntly

Bendigo, March 5th 2019.

Race 1: 6,8,1,3

Race 2: 5,10,7,4

Race 3: 6,1,8,13

Race 4: 5,2,3,8

Race 5: 4,5,1,2

Race 6: 11,1,2,7

Race 7: 1,7,6,10

Race 8: 8,5,3,1

 

Best Bet Race 1 -6 Jimenez

Best Value Race 6 – 11 Miss Carboni

 

Quaddie 1: 1,2,4,5

Quaddie 2: 1,2,11

Quaddie 3: 1,6,7

Quaddie 4: 1,3,5,8,12

 

Play of the Day: Daily Double: 1,11/3,5,8

 

 

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Deane Lester

BENDIGO

BEST BET

RACE 5 NO.4 SKELM

Promising stayer SKELM looks well placed to return to the winner’s list when he runs in the Benchmark 64 Handicap (2200m). The four-year-old ran very well when finishing fourth behind GRINZINGER STAR and DIVANATION over 2000 metres at Caulfield on April 20. That is a strong form reference for this race and, with added fitness from that run, SKELM appeals as the best bet of the day.

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Ray Huxley

Bairnsdale, March 5th 2019.


Race 1: 3, 7, 2, 4.
Race 2: 2, 9, 4, 7.
Race 3: 10, 8, 14, 5.
Race 4: 2, 1, 5, 8.
Race 5: 4, 3, 2, 5.
Race 6: 8, 1, 6, 11.
Race 7: 1, 7, 9, 6.

Best Bet: Race 7: FINALLY FREE (1)

Quaddie 1: 1, 2, 5.
Quaddie 2: 3, 4.
Quaddie 3: 1, 2, 4, 8.
Quaddie 4: 1, 6, 7, 9.

 

 

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Adam Olszanski

Bairnsdale, March 5th 2019.

Race 1 – 3,7,2,4
Race 2 – 7,9,2,4
Race 3 – 10,14,8,5
Race 4 – 1,2,5,8
Race 5 – 3,4,10,5
Race 6 – 1,8,6,11
Race 7 – 1,9,8,7

 

 

 

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Chris Nelson

Sunshine Coast, 5th May 2019

Race: 1 Selections:  6, 10, 1, 5
Race: 2 Selections: 4, 3, 8, 6
Race: 3 Selections: 1, 5, 2, 4
Race: 4 Selections: 5, 4, 7, 3
Race: 5 Selections: 8, 9, 11, 7
Race: 6 Selections: 5, 6, 7, 9
Race: 7 Selections: 6, 2, 3, 4
Race: 8 Selections: 15, 1, 6, 4

Best Bet: Race 4 # 5 Mewstone Rock
Best Value: Race 8 # 15 Tactical Manuever

Quaddie 1 – 7, 8, 9, 11
Quaddie 2 – 5, 6
Quaddie 3 –  2, 3, 4, 6
Quaddie 4 –  1, 6, 15

 Play of The Day –

Trifecta – Race 1, no.5 to win/nos.4 & 7 to run the placings

 

BET EASY 50 : 200

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Julie Rowland

Dubbo, 5th May 2019

Race 1: 1, 4, 2, 9

Race 2: 8, 10, 2, 1

Race 3: 11, 7, 4, 14

Race 4: 4, 3, 2, 5

Race 5: 12, 10, 6, 2

Race 6: 3, 5, 1, 2

Race 7: 3, 7, 5, 2

Race 8: 4, 7, 5, 1

Race 9: 4, 1, 8, 2

 

Best Bet: Race 1 – 1 Depth That Varies

Value: Race 2 -10 Cool Sea

 

Quaddie: 3,5 / 3,5,7 / 4,7,11 / 1,4,8

 

Play of the Day: Early Quad 1,2,8,10 / 11 / 2,4,5 / 10,12

 

 

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Ian Humphries

Sapphire Coast, 5th May 2019

Race 1: 2, 9, 6, 8

Race 2: 1, 3, 11, 10

Race 3: 6, 4, 10, 1

Race 4: 8, 7, 2, 9

Race 5: 14, 10, 4, 6

Race 6: 6, 4, 3, 1

Race 7: 4, 8, 3, 6

 

Best Bet: Race 4 – 8.

Value: Race 7 -4

 

Quaddie: 7, 8 / Field / 1, 3, 4, 6 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 8

 

Play of the Day: Kayla Nisbet in the Jockey Challenge

 

 

 

2019 Kentucky Derby: Runner by Runner Preview, Horse Odds, Tips, Selections and Best Bets

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2019 KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS

Morning Line Odds + Current Odds 1:40PM (KENTUCKY TIME)

 

1 War of Will

Morning Line Odds:

20-1

Current Odds:

17-1

2 Tax

Morning Line Odds:

20-1

Current Odds:

35-1

3 By My Standards

Morning Line Odds:

20-1

Current Odds:

16-1

4 Gray Magician

Morning Line Odds:

50-1

Current Odds:

30-1

5 Improbable

Morning Line Odds:

6-1

Current Odds:

5-1

6 Vekoma

Morning Line Odds:

20-1

Current Odds:

21-1

7 Maximum Security

Morning Line Odds:

10-1

Current Odds:

9-2

8 Tacitus

Morning Line Odds:

10-1

Current Odds:

5-1

9 Plus Que Parfait

Morning Line Odds:

30-1

Current Odds:

55-1

10 Cutting Humor

Morning Line Odds:

30-1

Current Odds:

24-1

11 Haikal 30-1 SCR

12 Omaha Beach 4-1 SCR

13 Code of Honor

Morning Line Odds:

15-1

Current Odds:

13-1

14 Win Win Win

Morning Line Odds:

15-1

Current Odds:

14-1

15 Master Fencer (JPN)

Morning Line Odds:

50-1

Current Odds:

53-1

16 Game Winner

Morning Line Odds:

5-1

Current Odds:

6-1

17 Roadster

Morning Line Odds:

6-1

Current Odds:

10-1

18 Long Range Toddy

Morning Line Odds:

30-1

Current Odds:

50-1

19 Spinoff

Morning Line Odds:

30-1

Current Odds:

49-1

20 Country House

Morning Line Odds:

30-1

Current Odds:

61-1

21 Bodexpress

Morning Line Odds:

30-1

Current Odds:

90-1

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War Of Will (1)

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(trainer: Mark Casse owner: Gary Barber)
Not so many horses go well from gate 1 in this race so Mark Casse’s colt has it all to do, especially as one not fully proven at Grade 1 level.

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Tax (2)

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(trainer: Danny Gargan owner: RA Hill Stable & Reeves Racing)
Just behind Tacitus in the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct, which was expected, and it’s unsure how much improvement we can expect but he is a son of Arch whose progeny tend to progress well.

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By My Standards (3)

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(trainer: Bret Calhoun owner: Allied Racing Stable)
The surprise winner of the Louisiana Derby back in March, Bret Calhoun’s runner is drawn in gate 3 and could run into trouble early in the race but as an inexperienced horse, he could improve significantly.

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Gray Magician (4)

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(trainer: Peter Miller owner: Wachtel Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred & Gary Barber)
Ran behind Plus Que Parfait over in Dubai, a race that doesn’t inspire too much, and before that, he had been beaten enough times in lower grade races to suggest this race is too hot.

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Improbable (5)

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(trainer: Bob Baffert owner: Win Star Farm, China Horse Club & Starlight Racing) 
Bob Baffert’s star has been beaten twice this season, but both in hot prep races and the son of City Zip is, of course, a Grade 1 winner already.

He got home nicely last season over a mile and battled to the line when beaten by Omaha Beach (now scratched due to an entrapped epiglottis) in the Arkansas Derby, but six furlongs to a mile run right through his pedigree so staying this mile-and-a-quarter distance after battling from gate 5 to get a good early position may not show him to very best effect.

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Vekoma (6)

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(trainer: George Weaver owner: RA Hill Stable & Gatsas Stables)
Although beaten in the Fountain of Youth by Code Of Honor, this horse has continued to progress throughout his early career and was striding home beautifully when winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

The progeny of Candy Ride has so far shown lots of speed but the sire himself was a very good Grade 1 winner over this distance and so there is plenty of hope that he can last home. Another improved showing would give Javier Castellano’s mount a great chance.

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Maximum Security (7)

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(trainer: Jason Servis owner: Gary & Mary West)
Having made all the running to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby and braking from gate 7, Jason Servis’ runner has an obvious chance in this race but some say he got the run of the race back at Gulfstream and he cannot have things his own way in this event.

Code Of Honor didn’t perform that day and neither did favourite Hidden Scroll, but this son of a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner could do no more and he remains a chief contender for the crown.

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Tacitus (8)

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(trainer: Bill Mott owner: Juddmonte Farms)
The top points scorer in the Road to the Kentucky Derby has been the only horse to have won two major preps, Bill Mott’s son of record-breaking sire Tapit has been given a good gate position and is one of few colts who seems sure to improve on the day.

Jose Ortiz should be able to get a good toe in behind the leaders and will have enough in hand for the stretch run too to give himself a major chance of the win.

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Plus Que Parfait (9)

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(trainer: Brendan Walsh owner: Imperial Racing)
Winner of the UAE Derby over in Dubai, he is here on merit but his overall profile is one of a colt who is somewhat behind many of the other contenders in the race.

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Cutting Humor (10)

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(trainer: Todd Pletcher owner: Starlight Racing)
Despite winning the Sunland Park Derby back in March, it’s hard to see Todd Pletcher’s colt getting involved in the finish here.

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Haikal (11)

(trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin owner: Shadwell Stable)

SCRATCHED

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Code Of Honor (13)

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(trainer: Claude McGaughey owner: WS Farish)
Having won an unsatisfactory renewal of the Fountain of Youth and finished third in the Florida Derby, it’s fair to say he is not the main contender from that part of the country and will need to improve a lot to hit the board here.

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Win Win Win (14)

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(trainer: Michael Trombetta owner: Live Oak Plantation)
Having run behind Tacitus and Vekoma in prep races this year, it’s hard to believe he can get around this field from gate 14 fast enough to take the honours.

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Master Fencer (15)

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(trainer: Koichi Tsunoda owner: Katsumi Yoshizawa)
Japan would love to win this race, especially for breeding purposes, but this horse simply doesn’t look good enough and his gate position doesn’t help matters.

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Game Winner (16)

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(trainer: Bob Baffert owner: Gary & Mary West)
With 4 wins (including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) and two seconds to his name, Bob Baffert’s money-spinning colt remains a leading contender but it’s unsure whether he can hit the Grade 1 heights he hit last year and from gate 16 he has his work cut out for him under Joel Rosario.

He did have to race wide last time also though and perhaps should have beaten Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby so he is not without a chance, especially after Omaha Beach’s withdrawal.

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Roadster (17)

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(trainer: Bob Baffert owner: Speedway Stable)
Just when Game Winner and Improbable looked like disappointing him, Bob Baffert unearths another star and this son of Quality Road won the Santa Anita Derby last time in the style of a horse who will appreciate this extra eighth of a mile.

Let’s not forget that he was favourite to beat Game Winner in the Del Mar Futurity last year and certainly has more to offer, his wide gate being the only negative about him as we go into the weekend.

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Long Range Toddy (18)

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(trainer: Steve Asmussen owner: Willis Horton Racing)
This is the colt who beat Improbable in a division of the Rebel Stakes of course, but he disappointed in the Arkansas Derby and has to break from gate 18.

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Spinoff (19)

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(trainer: Todd Pletcher owner: Wertheimer & Frere)
He was a good second in the Louisiana Derby but he would be uncertain to turn around the form with By My Standards and he is drawn very wide.

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Country House (20)

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(trainer: Bill Mott owner: Mrs JV Shields Jnr, EJM McFadden Jr & LNJ Foxwoods)
Bill Mott’s runner has some solid form, but having run consistently behind many Derby contenders this year there is no real reason he should improve past them now from gate 20.

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Bodexpress (21)

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(trainer: Gustavo Delgado owner: Top Racing, Global Thoroughbreds & GDS Racing)
Drafted in at the 11th hour after the defection of favourite Omaha Beach, the Florida Derby runner-up needs to improve somewhat and has to make do with gate 20.

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THE KING’S 

2019

KENTUCKY DERBY SELECTIONS

WKR - GET YOUR TIPS FROM THE KING

1. (15) GAME WINNER 6-1

2. (7) MAXIMUM SECURITY 9-2

3. (8) TACITUS 5-1

4. (17) ROADSTER 10-1

5. (10) CUTTING HUMOUR 24-1

6. (6) VEKOMA 21-1

 

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SUGGESTED BETS:

1. (15) GAME WINNER 6-1 — 8 units win

2. (7) MAXIMUM SECURITY 9-2 — 6 units win

3. (8) TACITUS 5-1 — 4 units each way

4. (17) ROADSTER 10-1 — 3 units each way

 

 

10/04/19 Free South Africa Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets: Greyville

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10/04/19

Free South Africa Horse Racing Tips

and

Best Bets

Greyville

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Horse Racing South Africa

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Greyville

Race 1 – Birthday Boy
Race 2 – Fair Antonia
Race 3 – Call Me Tonight
Race 4 – Ooh La La
Race 5 – March Preview
Race 6 – Apple Magic
Race 7 – Imperial Royal *BEST BET*
Race 8 – 11 Shadow Hunter
Race 9 – Waiting For Change
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The Championships – Day 1 2019 – Tips and Best Bets

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The Championships Day 1 Feature Races

 

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Horse Racing Australia

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Royal Randwick

Race 1 – Athiri $2.25*****
Race 2 – Dealmaker $2.40
Race 3 – Zalatte $9.50
Race 4 – 15 Lucciola Belle $31
Race 5 – 11 Gallic Chieftain $16
Race 6 – 13 Tenley $10
Race 7 – Madison County $8.50
Race 8 – Santa Ana Lane*** $7.00
Race 9 – Shillelagh $21
Race 10 – Mizzy** $5.00
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2015 Melbourne Cup Tips inc. Our Special to win!

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The final field for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup will be declared after the last at Flemington today with barriers to be drawn after the declaration of the final 24 runners.

“WKR’s OFFICIAL 2015 IN-DEPTH MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW” will be available Sunday afternoon with analysis of all 24 runners and their hopes in the 2015 Melbourne Cup.
However I’ve settled on my numbers for ‘The race that stops a nation’ & I’m very confident we’ve got the winner on top, in-fact I’ve made our top pick a special. The last time I was so confident regarding a single runners winning hopes in a Melbourne Cup was in 2005 with Makybe Diva who as history tells, went on to win the race and claim an historic 3rd consecutive Melbourne Cup. I have bet accordingly, and will have another crack if odds dictate so.

2015 MELBOURNE CUP TIPS

1.Trip To Paris ***wkr special***

2.Fame Game

3.Red Cadeaux

4.Snow Sky

5.Almoonqith

SUGGESTED BETS

Win BetTrip To Paris @ $7.50

Each Way BetRed Cadeaux $31.00 & $8.00

melbourne cup refund special bonus bet

2015 Cox Plate: In-Depth Runner by Runner Preview, Tips, Best Bets & Selections.

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It looks a vintage Cox Plate the 2015 edition, and while it’s always a good race the appearance of three Gr1 class European raiders in the final field of 14 adds a huge amount of excitement and anticipation to ‘Australasia’s WFA Championship’, that’s fast becoming the ‘WFA Championship of the World’. It’s never easy backing the winner and this year it looks particularly hard, but we’ll do our best as always to help you find the winner of the race and walk away from the day with the cash in your pocket.

CoxPlateCarnival

2015 Cox Plate In-Depth Preview

To compare the local form for the Cox Plate it’s important to go back through the last 3 or 4 runs this Spring and line up the horses when / if they met each other.

5 of the 11 local runners come here via the 2000m Gr1 Caulfield Stakes that was run at this track on the 10/10/15. Those 5 are: Criterion, Happy Trails, Pornichet, Kermadec & Fawkner. They finished relatively to each other as follows;

1st [+0.5L] Criterion (59) 13-2
2nd [-0.5L] Happy Trails (59) 15-1
4th [-1.4L] Kermadec (58) 5-2
6th [-6.2L] Fawkner (59) 13-4
8th [-8.7L] Pornichet (59) 11-2

(3rd in the race, very interesting to note, was dominant Caulfield Cup winner from last Saturday Mongolian Khan. The obviously stamps this form as very good, and immediately demands that you pay very close attention to the runs around him in the race)

Here’s a snap-shot of how the race developed from the 600m to the top of the straight to the finish post.

600M

Caulfield Stakes @ 600m mark

STRAIGHTENING FOR HOME

Caulfield Stakes straightening

FINISH

Caulfield Stakes finish

Criterion came from 2nd last at the 600m, circled the field and was a fair bit too strong for them. His run was the race best, although only narrowly because Kermadec was also very good. Criterion clocked the fastest last 800m, 600m & 400m times in the event. His last 200m was the 2nd fastest behind Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan only.

His sectionals read;

600m / 400m / 200m

Kermadec was last at the 600m and buried away over on the rails with no where to go. He ended up switching to the outside and once clear he ran home very well. His 600/400/200m splits were 2nd fastest, 2nd fastest, 3rd fastest in the race. Criterion went fractionally quicker over 600 & 400 while as mentioned Mongolian Khan ran the fastest last 200m. His sectionals read;

600m / 400m / 200m

Happy Trails was out dashed on cornering when Criterion wen straight past him, but as he always does he rallied back well and never shirked the task to finish 2nd. It was a pleasing run.

Fawkner put in an absolute shocker which is very unlike him, usually representing a model of consistency. He was vetted post race & stewards quizzed connections over the run but no light was shed as to why he dropped out so sharply by his standards. Definitely not a good lead up run for a Cox Plate!

Pornichet just didn’t measure up to the grade, he over raced  a bit which he often tends to do & also shod a plate, but was beaten too far. I’ve been against the horse all prep and that was enough to convince me he will not become the first horse ever to complete the rarified Toowoomba Cup / Cox Plate double!!

Hartnell & Preferment arrive at the Valley coming through the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m at Gr1 at Flemington.

1.CRITERION – (7) – $6.50 & $2.30 (out from $5.50)

Globe trotting entire who has proven himself one of the true current superstars of the Australian turf. 7th in this race last year but was safely held at all times but the leading division and never raised a winning hope for backers. It has to be said he’s going better this year than he was then though.

Since last year’s race he’s won the $4million QE Stakes at Royal Randwick during The Championships, ten embared on a 3 run overseas adventure- 1 run in HK when 3rd in the Gr1 QEII Cup over 2000m, then 2 runs in England when 5th in the Gr1 Prince of Wales & 6th in the Gr1 Juddmonte International. He was 5.6L off the winner, Golden Horn was a narrow 2nd so Criterion was 5.5L off him. I say this because Highland Reel was 4L off champion 3yo Golden Horn last start, so on that alone the lean is toward Highland Reel over Criterion. That said Criterion is in great order after returning home and storming to victory in the Caulfield Stakes, which has already thrown up the Caulfield Cup winner.

Sure to run well, he’s bombproof at the moment.

2.FAWKNER – (14) – $13.00 & $4.00 (solid)

Resumed his old self first up in the Gr1 Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington over the mile, winning another group 1, his 3rd.

Didn’t quiet show customary dash 2nd up in the Gr1 Underwood but still whacked away to eventually finish a nose 2nd in a driving 3 way go. He was somewhat below his best but it was a totally forgivable below best type of run…

Last start in the Caulfield Stakes though it was alarm bells ringing. He travelled in a lovely spot on what was a soft tempo, but he went like a pricked balloon down the running dropping right out in a fashion we’ve never before seen from this super honest grey. He was vetted, and they revealed no abnormalities. It was enough to put me right off him. Only on pure trust could I back him after what he did that day.

Take on trust only. Don’t be surprised if he turns things around sharply though.

3.HAPPY TRAILS – (13) – $17 & $4.80 (out from $13)

Veteran Adelaide horse Happy Trails breathed life into an ordinary campaign with a second-place result behind Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes, trumping Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan, but will have to overcome a wide barrier (13) if it’s to figure in the finish at Moonee Valley. A win would surprise but not totally shock me as you always know he’ll run well and give his all.

Sure to run his honest race, maybe that might just be good enough if he gets the luck.

4.HARTNELL – (3) –$17 & $4.80 (out from $13)

Sydney gelding Hartnell left his run too late in the Turnbull Stakes, rocketing home from 15th with 400m to go to finish sixth, less than two lengths behind winner Preferment. This time Hartnell will enjoy a more favourable barrier (3), though will concede an extra half a kilogram to Preferment.

Showed in the Autumn when blitzing all comers in the BMW Gr1 2400m at WFA that he’s got the class to win Gr1 WFA races. I just wonder if now the 2040m might be too short? In any case he’s sure to be attacking the line. With The Cleaner here setting the pace, he’s sure to get it run to suit his run-on pattern.

Can win.

5.MOURINHO – (12) – $26.00 $ $7.00 (solid)

The Underwood was the latest chapter in Mourinho’s love affair with Caulfield and the eight-year-old bay gelding has also won five times at Moonee Valley, though he finished four lengths sixth in the Dato Tan Chin Nam.

Wouldn’t it be great to see the Gelogatis boys train the winner of the Cox Plate! There’d be free fish & chips in Moe for a year!

6.THE CLEANER – (2) – $21 & $5.50 (solid)

Cult horse The Cleaner, the ‘Longford Lion’, rarely runs a bad race and has again figured prominently this Spring, finishing third behind Mourinho and Fawkner in the Underwood Stakes after winning the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes in early September. We know what we’ll get from him, he’ll roll forward and set a hot tempo and try to keep running.

Wouldn’t the crowd tear the roof off Moonee Valley if The Cleaner could clean up his more fancied rivals!

7.PORNICHET – (11) – $26.00 & $7.00 (solid)

Gai Waterhouse’s lone runner and Doomben Cup winner Pornichet (remains in the Cox Plate frame but with a significant question mark after finishing last, more than eight lengths behind Criterion, in the Caulfield Stakes. But his run behind Kermadec and Royal Descent in the Group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick proved that when things go his way he can mix it with the heavy hitters.

You could back him because the hall of fame legend Gai Waterhouse prepares but you couldn’t if your purely assessing him on last run.

8.AROD – (5) – $9.00 & $3.00 (solid)

(For an in-depth look at every run in Arod’s career + detailed form analysis + replay’s of his runs go to; https://weekendking.com.au/2015/10/20/2015-cox-plate-detailed-look-at-the-form-race-replays-of-the-3-international-cox-plate-horses/)

I’ve been swept away watching his latest replay when a narrow 2nd in the Sussex Stakes behind world super-star Solow. He pushed Solow more than any horse has in this winning run of 6 races (5xGr1) that he’s on. He almost looked as though he was going to beat him for a stride but Solow, the champion that he is, dug the deepest. He’s 2/2 at the trip that’s no concern, and very importantly will make his own luck probably tucking in for cover behind mad leader The Cleaner. If he runs up to that Sussex effort boy I think he’ll take plenty of beating here. A great wager at $9, on an each way basis.

9.COMPLACENT- (6) – $21.00 & $5.50 (solid)

Complacent has done little wrong this campaign for the powerful Godolphin stable, hitting the front a long way from home in the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes and withstanding a charge from Cox Plate fancy Kermadec.

The John O’Shea-trained five-year-old also ran third in the Hill Stakes, a length behind winner Preferment, and then beat stablemate Hauraki in the Group 3 Craven Plate.

He’s only a very lightly raced 4 year old, so his form is very much still on the upward spiral. With the necessary improvement, he could quiet easily figure.

10.GAILO CHOP – (8) – $21.00 & $5.50 (out from $17)

(For an in-depth look at every run in Gailo Chop’s career + detailed form analysis + replay’s of his runs go to; https://weekendking.com.au/2015/10/20/2015-cox-plate-detailed-look-at-the-form-race-replays-of-the-3-international-cox-plate-horses/)

Very honest and has won numerous group races but doesn’t seem right up to the very best level. He’d some chance in the Cox Plate but it would be quiet a surprise as I’m leaning towards the other 2 overseas horses as the main international chances.

Place hope.

11.KERMADEC – (10) – $7.50 & $2.60 (solid)

Kermadec wasn’t quite good enough to chase down Criterion and Happy Trails in his first run over 2000m in the Caulfield Stakes, though jockey Glen Boss was buoyed by the performance and said he was confident the four-year-old would be right in the mix at Moonee Valley. His run last start in the Caulfield Stakes was terrific and he gives the sense he won’t have an issue with the 2040m.

Great chance of giving Waller his first ‘major’.

12.PREFERMENT – (9) – $13.00 & $4.00 (solid)

Preferment rounds out Waller’s three Cox Plate contenders and is unbeaten over 2000m, including his last two starts in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and Group 2 Hill Stakes at Randwick. Nash Rawiller is set to pilot the four-year-old after regular mount Blake Shinn was suspended for eight meetings for careless riding at Seymour on Sunday. That’s no big loss as Nash is a big time rider. 

There’s no telling just how good this horse may be. He looked nothing but at genuine stayer at 3, but now as a newly 4yo he’s showed dash like I never thought possible for the horse. He’s a chance on class alone although I really get the distinct impression having followed him throughout his career that he’ll be better off over 3200m in the Melbourne Cup.

We know he’s good. If he wins this he’s a champion, because I don’t see how they’d deny him in the Melbourne Cup if he’s too classy here!

13.HIGHLAND REEL – (4) – $5.00 & $2.00 (solid)

(For an in-depth look at every run in Highland Reel’s career + detailed form analysis + replay’s of his runs go to; https://weekendking.com.au/2015/10/20/2015-cox-plate-detailed-look-at-the-form-race-replays-of-the-3-international-cox-plate-horses/)

Last start was a career highlight running world champion horse Golden Horn to 4L in the Irish Champion Stakes. Is that good enough to win a Cox Plate? It definitely could be he’s impossible to dismiss as having no chance. Will be in the front half of the field & has plenty of similarities to last year’s winner & former stablemate Adelaide.

He’s a terrific chance.

14.WINX – (1) – $7.00 & $2.50 (solid)

Unbeaten at her last four starts, including a pair of Group 1s, Sydney mare Winx will have the added advantage of carrying the bottom weight of 55.5kg. The Chris Waller-trained four-year-old mare copped bad interference around the home turn in the Epsom Handicap at Randwick on October 3 but was still far too good, saluting by more than two lengths. At her last preparation Winx brained them in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks at Doomben, unleashing her trademark turn of speed to launch from eighth at the 400m and win by 3.5 lengths.

She’s a terrific chance.

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TIPS:

  1. #8-AROD
  2. #13-HIGHLAND REEL
  3. #11-KERMADEC
  4. #12 PREFERMENT 
  5. #1-CRITERION

BEST BET:

#8-AROD each-way @ $9.00 & $3.00

FIRST 4 & TRIFECTA

Box the top 5 picks. Historically despite what many think this race often carries the largest F4 & Trifecta divi out of the Spring ‘big 3’.

Monday – Free Australian horse racing tips for Bairnsdale, Kempsey & Nowra

Free Daily Horse Racing Selections – Australia

crownbet 200:400 #2

Bairnsdale

Race 1 6 – Bojoura
Race 2 1 – Simply Simon
Race 3 1 – Chill Winston
Race 4 5 – Trench Fighter
Race 5 4 – Marlo Man
Race 6 7 – Make Mine Magnus
Race 7 2 – Jakusie King

Race 8

8 – Equinova 

 

get rewarded

Kempsey

Race 1 1 – Miss Tickles
Race 2 3 – Malleable
Race 3 5 – Harvard Graduate
Race 4 14 – Guided Missile
Race 5 10 – Grande Garcon
Race 6 1 – Saaher
Race 7 1 – Allzin

BANNER_Animated_$150_631x78-11

Nowra

Race 1 3 – Punton Bernardini
Race 2 4 – Zodiac
Race 3 5 – All About Magic
Race 4 4 – Counter Rose
Race 5 7 – Normandy Lad
Race 6 7 – All About Magic
Race 7 1 – Frankenbeans

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