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Belmont Stakes 151 – Field, Odds, Preview, Selections & Best Bets

POST POSITION HORSE ODDS
1 Joevia 30/1
2 Everfast 12/1
3 Master Fencer 8/1
4 Tax 15/1
5 Bourbon War 12/1
6 Spinoff 15/1
7 Sir Winston 12/1
8 Intrepid Heart 10/1
9 War of Will 2/1
10 Tacitus 9/5

RACE SUMMARY

  • Taprit in 2017 was the last horse to get beaten in the Kentucky Derby, skip the Preakness and come in and win the Triple Crown 3rd leg the Belmont Stakes. 4 of the 10 starters in 2019 are looking to win the Belmont off a similar form profile; TACITUS, MASTER FENCER, TAX & SPINOFF.
  • Tonalist in 2014 was the last horse to win the Belmont Stakes fresh after skipping both the Derby & Preakness. JOEVIA, SIR WINSTON & INTREPID HEART fit those same criteria having been specifically targeted at the Belmont.
  • Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby hard luck story, WAR OF WILL is looking to become the 1st horse since Afleet Alex in 2005 to run in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown & complete the Preakness Stakes / Belmont Stakes double after tasting defeat in the Derby.
  • That leaves EVERFAST & BOURBON WAR. They’ve got to defy the most significant history if they’re to win the 2019 Belmont Stakes. They skipped the Derby & were beaten in the Preakness. Not in over 2 decades, since Touch Gold in 1997, has a horse profiled in such a manner in the lead-up and gone on the win the Belmont.

No more needs to be said about the controversy that unfolded in the Kentucky Derby surrounding War of Will and Maximum Security. But it could certainly argued that if not for the severe check on the turn at Churchill Downs, War of Will could be going for the Triple Crown this weekend. He faces a stiffer test here up to the mile and a half trip (2400m) and having drawn out as opposed to the Derby and Preakness, wherein both races he drew post 1 and got a cosy run just in behind the speed on both occasions. Having said that it is only a small field of 10 runners and he does have good tactical gate speed so he should be able to find himself getting a similarly cushy run again here in the Belmont if speed maps play out according to plan. Judging by his Preakness win where he was very strong through the line, he shouldn’t have any trouble staying the mile and 1/2, he looks a dour type who doesn’t have an explosive turn of foot but rather just keeps on grinding away at a solid clip. I think the trip will suit. He’s my clear top pick to win the 151st Belmont Stakes. I think he’s much underrated, I know it’s a big IF, but again I’ll say it, if not for being Skittled by Maximum Security in the Derby, we could be talking another Triple Crown in 2019 and he’d be starting 1/2 ($1.50), not 2/1 ($3.00).

Tacitus the early favourite ran on well in the Derby. But I wasn’t enthralled with the effort. He does have the freshness War of Will win be lacking but does he have Waar of Will’s tenacity?

Next best Bourbon War coming fresh into the Belmont since an average Florida Derby run was he was a beaten favourite behind Maximum Security, but that form does stack right up so a win certainly wouldn’t shock.

TIPS

1. 9-War of Will @ 2/1

2. 10-Tacitus @ 9/5

3. 5-Bourbon War @ 12/1

2019 Doncaster Mile Betting Preview & Tips

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Saturday 06 April 2019

$3,000,000

Group 1

The Star Doncaster Mile

Royal Randwick

 

 

1.Hartnell

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Jockey: Hugh Bowman

Trainer: James Cummings

Barrier: 7

Weight: 58.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $10

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One of Australian racing’s toughest campaigners, Godolphin’s eight-year-old will be looking to add a fifth Group 1 crown to his bulging trophy cabinet. A strong second placing in the inaugural All Star Mile showed that the old boy still has what it takes to mix it with younger and perhaps more fancied rivals.

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2.Le Romain

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Jockey: James Mcdonald

Trainer: Kris Lees

Barrier: 16

Weight: 57.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $26

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Another with a strong performance in the inaugural All Star Mile, Le Romain is one of Australian racing’s most versatile horses. A six-year-old from the Newcastle stable of Kris Lees, he has three Group 1 wins and more than $4 million in prize money to his name.

 

 

3.Alizee

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Jockey: Blake Shinn

Trainer: James Cummings

Barrier: 12

Weight: 56.5

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $7.50

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Star mare from the Godolphin stable, a three-time Group 1 winner, and the form horse in the Doncaster field with three wins this preparation. These wins include the Listed Christmas Classic at Randwick, then the Group 2 Expressway Stakes at Rosehill, and finally in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Caulfield. Also ran third in the All Star Mile.

 

 

4.Land Of Plenty

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Jockey: Michael Rodd

Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden

Barrier: 9

Weight: 55.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $17

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Peter and Paul Snowden’s miler has done it before at the highest level, winning the Group 1 Toorak Handicap over the mile in the spring. Has gone close this prep, beaten by a length or less three times, including the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes and Group 1 Futurity Stakes.

 

 

5.Dreamforce

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Jockey: Damian Lane

Trainer: John P Thompson

Barrier: 13

Weight: 53.5

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $26

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Multiple black type winner from John Thompson’s stable, getting just his second start at Group 1 level. Comes into the Doncaster in great form, having won the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup at Randwick before running third to Winx in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes – the best from in Australia!

 

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6.Dixie Blossoms

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Jockey: Christian Reith

Trainer: Ron J Quinton

Barrier: 14

Weight: 53.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $20

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The six-year-old mare has had a fantastic career for Ron Quinton and went to another level again last start by collecting her first Group 1 win in the Coolmore Classic at Rosehill. Has also run second at Group 2 level this prep, making her one of the form horses of a high-quality Doncaster field.

 

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7.Shillelagh

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Jockey: Craig Williams

Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 3

Weight: 53.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $22

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Just one of many stars in the Chris Waller mega-stable. Has won over the mile at Group 1 level in each of the last two Melbourne Cup Carnivals. These include the Cantala Stakes in 2017 and the Empire Rose Stakes in 2018. Has what it takes and knows how to get it done at the highest level. Drops back from 2000m to 1600m which Waller has done many a time to win a big Randwick mile. Terrific in Australia Cup, that form is superb. Ran the fastest last 800m/600m/400m/200m in the Group 1 Epsom carrying the exact same weight of 53kg. Goes on top at a great each way quote.

 

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8.Kluger (Japan)

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Jockey: Tommy Berry

Trainer: Tomokazu Takano

Barrier: 4

Weight: 53.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $26

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Trained by Japan Cup-winning trainer Tomokazu Takano, Kluger has five wins from 19 career starts and appears to have acclimatised well since arriving in Australia recently. Tommy Berry will ride in the Doncaster. Seven-year-old Japanese visitor looking to launch a major raid on one of Australia’s biggest races.

 

 

9.Widgee Turf

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Jockey: Billy Egan

Trainer: Patrick Payne

Barrier: 17

Weight: 52.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $31

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Patrick Payne’s five-year-old gelding hasn’t been tested at Group 1 level but is an ultra-consistent type who is rarely uncompetitive no matter where he races. Illustrated by his 22 finishes in the first three across 29 career starts. Solid form this prep including a strong win at Listed grade at Flemington.

 

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10.Unforgotten

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Jockey: Kerrin Mcevoy

Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 18

Weight: 51.5

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $13

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Another one of Chris Waller’s stars, Unforgotten won the Group 1 Australian Oaks at the Championships last year. Has been impressive this prep without winning, with her best result a close third behind Winx in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes. Also has form behind Avilius with a fourth in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes.

 

11.Life Less Ordinary

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Jockey: Corey Brown

Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 10

Weight: 51.5

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $61

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Chris Waller’s seven-year-old gelding is something on an enigma, often being difficult to get a line on. Last win was the 2018 Wagga Cup at Listed level, and before that a city win at Caulfield a further twelve months back. Comes into the Doncaster first-up from a spell.

 

 

12.Eckstein

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Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Trainer: Kurt Goldman

Barrier: 15

Weight: 51.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $81

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A brave campaigner from Kurt Goldman’s stable at Goulburn, Eckstein has put plenty of impressive wins and more than $1 million in prize money on the board at five years of age. Won at Group level in the Southern Cross Stakes at Rosehill this preparation, its a big chance to take this out too.

 

 

13.Aloisia

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Jockey: Jay Ford

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Barrier: 6

Weight: 50.5

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $61

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Four-year-old mare for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace who has seen a lot of action in a relatively short career. A Group 1 winner after taking out the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield last season, Aloisia comes into the Doncaster with some patchy form, though she did run a close second in the Group 2 Villiers Stakes at Randwick.

 

 

14.Siege Of Quebec

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Jockey: Robbie Dolan (a)

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Barrier: 22

Weight: 50.5

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $71

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Fastnet Rock stallion for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Won at Group level in the spring, defeating the likes of Pierata to take out the Bill Ritchie Handicap over 1400 metres at Randwick. Hasn’t impressed hugely in this preparation to date.

 

 

15.Fifty Stars

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Jockey: Jye Mc Neil

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig

Barrier: 24

Weight: 50.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $8.00

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A couple of fantastic wins this prep has made punters sit up and take notice of the four-year-old from the Lindsay Park stable. His prep got off to a slow start in Melbourne, but he’s arrived in Sydney in stunning style, winning the Group 2 Blamey Stakes and the Group 2 Ajax Stakes.

 

 

16.I Am Serious

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Jockey: Karis Teetan

Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 1

Weight: 50.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $31

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High rated by Chris Waller (he would know!), with the trainer marking this five-year-old mare as a potential Group 1 winner. Fared poorly in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic, finishing well down the field, but is generally a very consistent type who cannot be discounted.

 

 

17.So Si Bon

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Jockey: Lachlan King

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig

Barrier: 5

Weight: 50.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $61

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One of Australian racing’s perennial bridesmaids! So Si Bon is a regular starter in high-quality racing but unfortunately is simply a non-winner. He’s saluted the judge just twice across a 36-race career (including zero wins from twelve Group 1 starts). Having said that, he did have success relatively recently when winning the Listed Lord Stakes at Caulfield on Boxing Day.

 

 

18.Fundamentalist

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Jockey: Ben Thompson

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig

Barrier: 2

Weight: 49.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $12

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A high-quality filly from the Lindsay Park stable. The three-year-old comes into the Doncaster with a lightweight and has had a very consistent preparation. Has finished second at Group 1 level in both her last two starts, both by less than half a length. The Doncaster will be a tough task, but she could just be due.

 

 

19.El Dorado Dreaming

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Jockey: Andrew Gibbons

Trainer: Kris Lees

Barrier: 20

Weight: 49.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $31

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Superb three-year-old filly for Kris Lees and the winner of the ATC Sires Produce at The Championships in her two-year-old season. Hugely consistent type who has placed nine times across a twelve-race career. Another who’ll hit the Doncaster full of confidence and with little weight on her back.

 

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20.Brutal

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Jockey: Glen Boss

Trainer: Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes

Barrier: 21

Weight: 49.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $7.50

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The Hawkes’ three-year-old colt seems to have really snuck up on the Doncaster, and only just made it into the final field. Ran second behind Winx in the George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill… and there’s no better form than Winx form. A genuine winner who has saluted three times in just six career starts.

 

 

(EM) 21.Violate

Jockey: TBA

Trainer: Brent Stanley

Barrier: 19

Weight: 50.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $151

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Violate is the first emergency for the 2019 Doncaster Mile. He is a gelding born on September 30, 2013, by Sebring out of Shantha’s Girl. The current race record for Violate is 4 wins from 33 starts with prizemoney of $473,100.00.

 

 

(EM) 22.Fierce Impact

Jockey: TBA

Trainer: Matthew Smith

Barrier: 23

Weight: 50.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $101

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Fierce Impact is the second emergency for the 2019 Doncaster Mile. He is a stallion born on March 6, 2014, by Deep Impact out of Keiai Gerbera. The current race record for Fierce Impact (JPN) is 3 wins from 15 starts with prizemoney of $244,880.00.

 

 

(EM) 23.Ringerdingding

Jockey: TBA

Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 8

Weight: 49.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $51

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This Edward O’Rourke trained son of Sebring lived up to his impressive trial performances by winning on debut at Rosehill in February 2018, and in doing so lowered the boom on Godolphin’s juvenile colt Wagner. The colt was then well beaten in the Group III Pago Pago Stakes before getting back on track with a decent run at Rosehill when he was never on the track but was beaten less than 2 ½ lengths by Irukandji. O’Rourke has always felt the 1400m of the Group I Inglis’ Sires would be an ideal race for the youngster and that race has been his main autumn Sydney target in 2018.

 

 

(EM) 24.Seaway

Jockey: TBA

Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 11

Weight: 50.0

Odds – BetEasy Bet Boost (Claim Here): $101

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Seaway is the fourth emergency for the 2019 Doncaster Mile. He is a gelding born on November 17, 2014 by Ocean Park out of Miss Purrfection. The current race record for Seaway (NZL) is 5 wins from 12 starts with prizemoney of $292,425.00.

 

DEPOSIT $20 - BET WITH $200

(PRICES CORRECT AS @ 11:00AM WEDNESDAY 3RD APRIL, 2019 – GET THE LATEST UPDATED ODDS BY CLICKING HERE)

Tips:

1. (7) Shillelagh – $22.00 & $5.50

2. (10) Unforgotten – $13.00 & $3.40

3. (15) Fifty Stars – $8.00 & $2.50

4. (6) Brutal – $7.50 & $2.30

5. (19) El Dorado Dreaming – $31.00 & $7.00

 

Suggested Bets:

  • (7) Shillelagh – 5/10 units each way *BEST BET*

  • (10) Unforgotten – 3/10 units each way

  • (19) El Dorado Dreaming – 2/10 units each way

  • Box 1st 4: #6 / #7 / #10 / #15 / #19

 

Sandown race by race Preview & Tips – Saturday – 14.11.15

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Free Sandown Horse Racing Preview & Tips – Saturday 13 November 2015

The crescendo of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival, Melbourne Cup Week at Flemington, may be done and dusted for another year but that doesn’t mean the high class racing in Melbourne Town is totally done and dusted, we’ve still got a terrific card of racing at William Hill Park, Sandown tomorrow.

Racing for the day will be on the Sandown-Hillside circuit.

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Race 1

$120,000 listed Magical Kingdom Stakes, open 2 year old set weights race.

On exposed race form there’s only one horse you could back 7.Miss Rock, Robbie Laing’s Fastnet Rock filly who won on debut in the listed Debutant at Caulfield before finishing 3rd in the Gr3 Emirates Airline Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington when she loomed to win but got bogged down in the worst part of a biased Flemington track. 8.Motown Lil comes through that same Flemington race and has to be some hope with natural improvement from her debut outing. She was well supported in pre-post markets for that run before easing on track so maybe the experience of going for the races for the first time took a toll. Tony McEvoy has proven he has a strong 2 year old crop already this season, highlighted with a impressive feature 2yo winner during the Flemington carnival. He has two runners engaged here both on debut, 1.Jackson & 11.Sweet Varden. Both have trialled twice in Adelaide in preparation, with Sweet Varden winning it’s latest trial effort. Early market supports suggests 7.Miss Rock is the hardest to beat. As much as $3.70n was put up with the best shopping now $3.30 with sportsbet.com.au. As low as $2.80 with luxbet.

I like what I see with Miss Rock, she looks a natural early 2 year old type and should prove hard to beat. Price ok.

 

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Race 2

1400m listed race for the 3 year old fillies.

5-1 the field with a stack of genuine hopes in the race with no clear stand out via form analysis or ratings.

6 of the 14 runners come through the Lexus Hybris plate from Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington. 5.Indarra was the best of those finishing in 2nd 3L off the impressive winner Don’t Doubt Mamma. She’s had 3 starts for 3 placing’s and whilst she doesn’t appear a star, is a consistent type and that can be respected in such a field. 6.Irada was very good fresh at Caulfield and her pattern wasn’t suited by the pattern Cup Day at Flemington, she’s a major hope. Beautifully bred filly 9.Russian Empress by Fastnet Rock out of Readyforcatherine bolted in by 6L last start to break her maiden status in impressive fashion, can go on with it! 12.Micondesa won on debut impressively. Faces a rise in grade no doubt but has scope and must be respected from the Hayes yard. Good hope. Could list them all nearly! Tough race. The best best backed is the 12.Micondesa into $5 now from as much as $6.

Not keen to play, 5.Indarra each way at $8.50 my best suggestion with CrownBet.

 

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Race 3

Looks a genuine match-race between 3.Generalife & 4.Under The Louvre. Generalife resumed in the tab.com.au Stakes Derby Day and was running on hard without ever having much room. A good line through that race was Delectation whose run was almost identical to Generaife’s, it came out 7 days later and won the big $1,000,000 Flemington Gr1 Sprint Stakes Day. Not bad. With any luck Under The Louvre could be chasing his 5th win on the trot and be about a $1.33 chance here. He’s not though, he’s instead funnily enough still chasing his first win from his 5 run preparation. He’s a get back run on horse and those type always need luck. He’s had zero luck at any of his last 4 outings and 1300m is ideal. Drawn in 7 which helps his cause, doubt he’ll get strung up in traffic and in a smallish field he won’t have to get a mile off them. Will have his chance to run on in the vast Sandown stretch and luck shouldn’t be a factor. 1.Smokin’ Joey has class and is resuming here, only won once from 11 fresh though. 2.Famous Seamus isn’t going as well as say 12-18 months ago but is honest and a blowout hope. 10.Bring Me The Maid could win this quiet easily if at her best.

Back Generalife & Under The Louvre for a equal stake, go hard, go big! You won’t win as much as if you were to back only one and get the winer but it looks a distinct case of the old “whatever I back, the other one will win”. Hedge your bet.

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Race 4

8.Good Project is in terrific form. was huge last start at Flemington but is short enough in this grade at $3. That doesn’t tempt me. 3.Star Rolling is a group 2 winner. He’s a high class galloper and proven fresh performer. Interesting he turn up here, that’d suggest he’s been targeted for it. Can win. 25/1. 2.Charmed Harmony is a great hope. Only fair last time but forgive that and he’d be the favourite coming ff a great gr1 performnace in Rupert Clarke. Melbourne Cup winning trainer now based in Brisabane John Meagher is still sharp as a tack for an old, self confessed ‘battler’ (drives around in Porshe while other 2 are home in garage). He has 10.Harada Bay here. Many would wonder why Meagher brought the averagely performed gelding south, but he’s run 2nd in both Victorian starts, it hot company. Supported on both occasion. John’s horses are target for one race each campaign with anything else a bonus. This is his target in the south. Meagher’s old apprentice S.King rides. Can be winning. Follow any support with degree of confidence for sure. 6.Hosting has been good in two runs back. Looks to be peaking here. 5.Akavoroun has an abundance of talent, I’ve long been a fan of the horse. Probably best on wet though. Always a Costly conveyance so the day he does win again it’ll be around the 10/1 – 12/1 mark he is here. Hope. 1.Ninth Legion & 4.Mr Utopia are honest types and wouldn’t shock.

Tough race so I’ll stick to what I perceive the value in the race and back Harada Bay, on suspicion.

 

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Race 5

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The Zipping Classic, named after the old beauty Zipping who was a 4 time-consecutive winner of the race previously known as the Sandown Classic, but fittingly renamed to honour the lloyd Williams owned war horse.

Small field so tactics will inevitably win the race. 6.Rising Romance maps to get the best run and such I’d have to side with him. 3.Tall Ship looks a very progressive D.K Weir trained stayer and could well pick this up en-route to bigger things in the future. Regally bred. 1.Who Shot Thebarman was terrific in the Melbourne Cup, would’t have won but was clearly going to be in the top 5 in not for severe interference in the running (Dettori copped a month & $20,000 fine for incident). 7.Kirramosa has been ticking along nicely for this and it has been targeted for this race, that’s a big bonus.

Tricky race. Suggest the 6.Rising Romance.

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Race 6

TIP: 9.SCREAM MACHINE

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Race 7

TIP: 12.DON’T DOUBT MAMMA

 

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Race 8

TIP: 7.MAYGROVE

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Race 9

TIP: 1.SOLICIT

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Saturday’s Group I Golden Rose (1400m) likely field

There are eight confirmed jockeys for the $1 million event with Godolphin’s Exosphere leading the way as favourite, ahead of the Chris Waller-trained Press Statement and Speak Fondly from the Gai Waterhouse stable.

Press Statement is Waller’s main hope in the race but Sydney’s leading trainer is yet to officially rule out running Wudang Mountain and Japonisme.

Hong Kong-based jockeys Brett Prebble and Joao Moreira are set to make an appearance aboard Speak Fondly and Shards respectively.

Below is a list of possible contenders for the 2015 Golden Rose.

HORSE

TRAINER

JOCKEY

PRESS STATEMENT Chris Waller Tye Angland
SPEAK FONDLY Gai Waterhouse Brett Prebble
EXOSPHERE John O’Shea James McDonald
GOLD SYMPHONY Peter Moody Tommy Berry
RAGEESE Michael, Wayne and James Hawkes Brenton Avdulla
SHARDS John O’Shea Joao Moreira
SEBRING SUN Gary Portelli Jim Cassidy
LET’S MAKE IT RAIN Ron Quinton TBA
HOLLER John O’Shea Sam Clipperton
REDZEL Peter and Paul Snowden TBA
ZOUTENANT Kevin Moses TBA
WUDANG MOUNTAIN (unlikely) Chris Waller TBA
JAPONISME (unlikely) Chris Waller TBA

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CrownBet have Godolphin galloper Exosphere a narrow $3.30 pre-post favourite from Press Statement at $3.60. Gai’s filly who is 2 from 2 this campaign is on the next line at $6, then follow Shards $13 and Rageese & Holler at $15.

Check in with WKR later in the week for a full in-depth preview of the $1,000,000 Group 1 Golden Rose, but at this stage of the week I’d be taking the $13 about Goldolphin colt Shards to be ridden by Joao Moreira, the worlds premier jockey.

NRL Rd 25: Broncos v Souths Preview


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South Sydney Rabbitohs v Brisbane BroncosAllianz Stadium
Thursday, 7.45pm

So much has changed, yet it seems like only yesterday.

On the back of their drought-breaking premiership the Rabbitohs had scooped the Auckland Nines and then gone overseas to beat the best England has to offer.

Then, when Wayne Bennett sent out a Broncos team for the first time in seven seasons more than 36,000 fans turned out at Suncorp Stadium and more than a million tuned in at home to witness a 36-6 thumping by the defending champs.

Bookmakers quickly moved to shorten their odds of going back-to-back and an excitable Brisbane supporter base were forced to face the possibility that the Bennett blueprint was more a slow build rather than a quick fix.

But 24 weeks later and the Broncos have won 16 games compared to the Rabbitohs’ 12 and are $4.75 with bookmakers to go all the way while the odds of South Sydney’s title defence have drifted to $9.

Which brings us to Round 25 and a match that can see South Sydney secure a critical top four finish with a win or the Broncos secure home ground advantage in Week One of the finals should they defeat the Rabbitohs in Sydney for the first time in more than a decade.

Both teams are coming off losses to top opposition last week with the major casualty a knee injury to Rabbitohs fullback Greg Inglis that has required surgery this week.
Alex Johnston will assume the custodian role for the fifth time this year but a win-loss ratio of 1-3 when he has deputised in Inglis’s absence will come as cold comfort to the Rabbitohs’ faithful.

Off-setting the loss of Inglis are the returns of both Issac Luke and Luke Keary from suspension with Joel Reddy coming onto the wing to assume the position vacated by Johnston.

Having spent the week in Sydney following their 12-10 loss to the Roosters last Saturday night, Bennett has named the same 17 to take on South Sydney as they look to avoid a fourth loss in the space of five weeks.

Watch Out Rabbitohs: They won’t shy away from the need to win the middle of the field but having shown a propensity to shift the ball amongst the forwards, the Rabbitohs will need to be aware of a Broncos team willing to try their luck on the edges. Blair, Parker, Thaiday and Wallace all have an ability to tip-on to runners on their outside so the big Bunnies bodies of the Burgess twins and Tim Grant will need to be conscious of their lateral movement in and around the ruck. The likes of Anthony Milford and Ben Hunt will punish a defensive line that offers up any type of gap on the edges.

Watch Out Broncos: The return of Issac Luke from a week’s suspension will allow the Rabbitohs to revert to the game-plan that has served them so well in recent seasons. Just under 89 per cent of the Rabbitohs’ hit-ups are taken through the middle third of the field, a retreating defensive line opening up space for Luke to generate even further momentum. Prior to Round 23 Luke had more than 50 extra dummy-half runs than the next No.9 in the competition and runs more than twice as often as his opposite on Thursday night, Andrew McCullough. Luke is the fulcrum from which all South Sydney’s attack revolves around and with Inglis out of the picture, the Kiwi international’s influence will need to be greater than ever.

Key Match-up: Luke Keary v Anthony Milford. Issac isn’t the only Luke being welcomed back into the South Sydney fold this week with Luke Keary also a fresh inclusion following a week’s suspension. It was the first game the 23-year-old had missed all season and the Rabbitohs’ attack stuttered without his presence at five-eighth that has yielded nine try assists and 11 line-break assists. Although Keary and Milford won’t directly face off against each other as both position themselves on the left side of their team’s attack, their energy and ball-playing at the line will be key attacking weapons. In his first year at the club Milford leads the Broncos with 14 try assists and his combinations with Darius Boyd and Jack Reed have developed beautifully over the course of the season.

History: Played 31; Rabbitohs 9, Broncos 21, Drawn 1. South Sydney’s Round 1 demolition of the Broncos was their second-biggest win over the boys from Brisbane and a fourth win on the trot against a team who won 16 of the first 21 meetings dating back to Round 14, 1988. The last time the Broncos defeated the Rabbitohs in Sydney was way back in Round 2, 2003 where the visitors scored five tries to three to win 22-20 at the Sydney Football Stadium.

Did You Know: Only three players remain from the two teams that fought out a 34-all draw in Round 25, 2004. John Sutton, Corey Parker and Sam Thaiday all took part that night with Parker converting a Neville Costigan try from the sideline in the dying stages to send the game into golden-point extra time. Seeking their first win over the Broncos in 15 years, Rabbitohs hearts sank when a field goal attempt from Joe Williams hit the post but neither side could find the match-winner in the 10 additional minutes. Sutton had made his NRL debut two months earlier against the Broncos, lining up in the centres and scoring a try in his team’s 48-28 defeat.

How We See It: Two teams that had their colours lowered last weekend will be desperate to prove it was a bump in the road and not an ill-timed slump. The Rabbitohs were comprehensively outplayed while the Broncos went down to a brave Roosters team in a tight and gripping contest. A short turnaround doesn’t help Brisbane’s chances but the loss of Inglis is an even greater blow to the Bunnies. Broncos by four points.

Robbie’s In-Depth Doomben Preview – 10 July 2015

Better performance last week with a couple of our more fancied runners saluting but we were still

let down by some shocking rides. That is probably the biggest risk betting on Brisbane races, the

quality of hoop engaged. We really have a poor selection of riders to choose from so you are let

down more often than not. The only two riders you can really depend on are Tim Bell and Damian

Browne which is a bit sad. That’s why you will see majority of favourites going around with an

apprentice on board. The kids ride as well as most the senior jockeys, and if you can get 3kg off then

you lose nothing and gain everything by putting them on. L Dittman looks in for a big day tomorrow

with a super book of rides. Enough of the rant from me – lets get into it.

The weather has been good here all week and even with a small amount of rain I expect us to be on

a good track tomorrow. Rail is 3.5m the circuit which isnt too bad so most horses should be given a

chance, however, as we know with Doomben it really favours the on speed runners.

R1 – F&M Class 6 to kick things off. No. 5 Lesley’s Choice hasn’t been seen since her 6L romp back in

May in the midweeks. Im not sure why they have kept her out so long as she has been a nominator

and acceptor over the past 3 weeks without running – maybe they were just waiting for the right

race / competition / barrier etc and she has got it here. Barrier 1, 3kg claimer and a good track. I

think she will jump and lead from the cherry and prove very hard to catch. She maybe a touch short

at the moment at $2.50 but you certainly don’t want to back anything to beat her. There looks to be

a good amount of pace in the race so Im certainly not declaring her. No.9 Aerobar is up from Sydney

for Gerald Ryan. This 3yo filly has drawn wide so will look to press forward form barrier 9 and I

expect her to get across and sit outside the leader eventually. We could see No.10 Khalessi and No.3

Anasheed both push forward to try and hold her out, especially with the claimers on both, so that

would see Aerobar having to do a stack of work to get to the front with the fave. Who knows, those

4 could go silly but No.5 Lesley’s Choice will do the least amount of work and the apprentice on is

quite smart so might even look to box seat if they do go silly. No.4 Doula and No. 8 Widow’s Walk

will both relish the tempo up front and it would not shock to see either grab the fave late as she

hasn’t raced for almost 6 weeks so could feel the pinch at the end of 1200m. Tough little race to

begin.

Selections – 5/8/4/9

Suggested bet – box quinella 5/8/4/9

Confidence – 70%

R2 – another class six over 1200m this time for the boys. Pretty average class 6 if you ask me and

certainly a race to look for some value as there are multiple winning chances. No6. Headwater

Country looks like he will cross from wide and lead them up. Looks to be the only natural leader in

the race so the pace could be a lot slower than we see from the first race. No7. Flamboyer will press

forward from out wide and should find the fence first and hand up to No.6 Headwater Country.

No11. Suit and No. 9 On The Deck should find a nice spot close up but the pace, as mentioned, looks

to be only moderate and we could see a sprint home. No.4 Big Decision might look to take up a first

4 position but I see no problems for these 5 mentioned finding a good position. Favourite No.10 Mr

Jetset has drawn barrier 1 but gets back in his races and at Doomben I think he will find himself 3 or

4 pairs back on the rail and in an awkward spot, so I am willing to take it on. Another horse I have

plenty of time for is No.12 Three Beers Please – has a handy record and was super last start here

about a month ago. The month off concerns me, especially with the step up in grade, so it might

need the run but it also wouldn’t shock as the horse he beat, Storm Fighter, franked that form on

Wednesday. I’m selecting No.11 Suit on top as an each-way bet, just because I think it will get a

good spot in the run and has some pretty handy form from when it was in Sydney against G1

performed Generalife and a few other handy types.

Selections – 11/9/7/6

Suggested bet – each way No.11 Suit ($5.50 and $2 UBET)

Confidence – 50%

R3 – a real plodders staying race here – Im sure most smart punters will turn it over to the footy

while this race is on. Im not going to bother with the speed map here but I can say I think the

favourite, No.10 More Energy is a false favourite. A 4yo Fastnet Rock which doesn’t bode well for a

2200m race. As well it is stepping up to the distance from a 1600m race which doesn’t profile well

either. Almost pinched it last start at big odds but there is no way you can take $3.20 about this

thing. If you made me bet on the race I would back No.2 Kobi Creek who looked home last time out

or No.7 Kaiser Franz who flogged them last start but doesn’t go as well on the firmer surface. My

real tip though is save your money for later in the day.

Selections 7/2/10/12

Suggested bet – don’t bet

Confidence – 25%

R4 – another race with little interest – a 2yo winter race in Brisbane. There is a couple of handy ones

here so probably a little more quality than we have seen recently. As with all 2yo races the pace

should be good. No.14 Certain Ellie should lead from barrier 1. Had trialled really well in June, albeit

on a heavy, so I think on top of the ground she wont be good enough. No.4 Monaco Playboy should

come out fast and may look to lead / sit outside the 14 if it is leading. No.1 Jam Toast should work to

the front from his middle barrier and sit just behind them. No.7 Most Important should box seat

behind the leader and No2. Dram of Red should get a lovely run behind the front four. I would like

Byrne to have him one off the fence though as being in traffic as a 2yo isnt ideal but I have a feeling

the horse will be 3 pairs back on the rail. If Byrne can get No. 2 Dram of Red off the fence I think it

wins, but at $2.70 currently I think it’s a bit skinny given the risk it might find trouble at Doomben. It

looks like No.12 Flamenco could be the value runner here. Drawn beautifully in barrier 4 I expect

Colless to have it 3 pairs back on the outside and assuming the pace is good it should work nicely

into the straight and have last crack at them. It’s a good each-way bet especially being a 2yo race.

Selections 12/2/7/8

Suggested bet – each-way No.12 Flamenco ($9 and $3 UBET), saver No.2 Dram of Red

Confidence – 70%

R5 – small group of sprinters going around again. No.5 Tiger Dimejan was injured this week and has

been retired to be served by Better Than Ready, so there goes a heap of speed in the race. Last race

we declared No.1 Rocky King the best on the card, but was he pestered more than expected by No.

3 The Storeman and really didn’t show a lot of ticker in the straight – he also missed the start slightly

which didn’t help. Similar runners going around here with one quality addition in the form of ex

Sydney galloper No.7 Knight Templar. The map should look the same as 2 weeks ago. No.1 Rocky

King will come across from the wide gate and No.3 The Storeman will press up from his inside

barrier. No.2 Seeking More will do a carbon copy of last run and just sit on the fence behind these

two getting the soft run. No.7 Knight Templar should get into the 1-1 if No.6 My Quilter doesn’t

show enough speed. I see no reason why No.2 Seeking More cant repeat last starts effort and at $3

is about the right price. I will be more than ropable if No.1 Rocky King jumps and leads all the way

for a win, but from out wide again we are hopeful it should get the stitch late.

Selections – 2/1/7/3

Suggested bet – win bet No.2 Seeking More ($3 UBET)

Confidence – 90%

R6 – tough race over the mile here for the One Metro Win brigade. No.12 Tracey’s Angel looks to

lead (although no jockey announced yet so it could be a non runner) with the roughie No.17 Union

also coming across. I cant see a lot of moves happening here so some of these more fancied runners

will need to go back from their wide gates or will need to put some speed on. No.15 Lordag looks to

get the box seat on the fence behind the speed and No.6 Budget Bender will get to the 1-1. Another

race lacking speed on so should be a sprint home here. No.15 Lordag looked home for all money last

time out and now he has drawn the right barrier I think he will win it. No.6 Budget Bender wont be

far off. Had No. 9 In The Genes drawn a barrier I would have declared it but I just cant see it getting

into a spot from barrier 17 and don’t think there will be enough pace on for it to come from the tail.

Selections – 15/6/9/12

Suggested Bet – each-way No.15 Lordag – ($5 and $2 UBET)

Confidence – 80%

R7 – good field of runners here over the 1350 Open Handicap. No.12 Faultless Dancer and No.7

Platinum State will both work to the lead and set a decent pace. No.8 Steel Zip should get to the box

seat behind the pace and No.11 Our Boy Nicholas should find the 1-1 with No.1 Riva De Lago on his

back. We backed him a couple of weeks ago with no luck and with slight luck in running I think No.1

Riva De Lago should be winning this. Drawn much better this time, 3kg claimer and a good track as

well. I’m willing to take on the fave here, No.2 Real Surreal, as there are a couple of things against

her. She’s drawn a bit deep so may get posted wide or need to go back. Also, Cahill is not a good

jockey and I have no faith in him getting her into the right spot. She could be a good thing beaten

tomorrow.

Selections – 1/11/8/2

Suggested Bet – No.1 Riva De Lago each-way ($4.80 and $1.95 UBET)

Confidence – 80%

R8 – we finish the day with the 3yo’s. Had No.10 Golden Falls drawn a barrier I would have made it

my best on the card, but we are going to need a bit of luck here. She has drawn 17 but comes into 11

with emergencies out. Colless managed to get her home well from 14 over the T/D last time so he is

certainly capable. She goes back and will need luck and speed on so the $2.60 at the moment looks

really short for my liking but I still think she wins. Be weary of any bias and if its leader dominated

steer clear. She is the best in the race but the barrier is a huge concern. No.3 Elusive Catch was our

best on the card last week but a Paul Hammersley shocker saw her run 3rd. Also drawn wide so we

won’t be on her this week and No.1 Lucky Tom has also drawn wide. He is a go forward horse so I

think he might be able to get to the lead / outside of it by the bend as the speed doesn’t look like it

will be too fierce. Still, those three runners all need luck in running. No.8 Duporth Jack has been

racing super and looks like he should get to a lovely spot in running. Looks to be in career best form

and given the barriers all the other fancied runners have drawn then I would be taking this guy each-

way as well as the favourite. Personally a race I wont get involved in as there are too many good

horses have drawn wide – it just makes for too much uncertainty in the race.

Selections – 10/8/1/18

Suggested bet – win bet No.10 Golden Falls (top tote) and small each-way No.8 Duporth Jack ($21

and $5.50)

Confidence – 50%

Best Bet – R5 No.2 Seeking More

Best Each-Way – R6 No.15 Lordag

Best Roughie – R8 No.8 Duporth Jack

Melbourne: Comprehensive preview of every race for Caulfield

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NOTE: Numbers in brackets are the official handicap ratings for each horse. Track rated Good (4) at time of writing.

RACE 1

Good luck if you’re having a go in the first! I thought 8. SPATSIZI (59) didn’t go a yard in the heavy ground at his debut at Ballarat and that run should be forgot as we’re playing on a much better surface. I loved his jump outs prior to that debut and it’s interesting that Glen Boss has stuck with him. Expecting a big improvement. 2. JALAN JALAN (66) was an upset winner at her only start back in May on a soft track but it was a good effort. She’s been kept ticking over with a trial and a jump out since and the latter was a very easy gallop at Caulfield on Tuesday. Gets every chance. 1.GREEN CARD (63) bolted in first-up at Bendigo and the form has been strengthened a little with the runner-up scoring easily in a maiden earlier this week. If he can run up to that performance he’s hard to beat. Just about all of the first starters have been seen in jump outs and most have shown something. Of them 16. THE COOL JEWEL (NR) may be the best of them. She won a trial at Flemington last Friday in good fashion.

RACE 2

4. FINE APPROACH (80) is a better than average Adelaide mare and her performance to run third at Morphettville a few weeks back was excellent after she blew the start badly. She made her run on the inside which was seen as inferior on the day as well. If Ollie can get her out of gate one with them then she’ll be in the finish. 6. PILLY’S WISH (74) also gave away an impossible start second-up at the Valley but did run on well to finish second behind Wild Rain who was up on the pace. I know she has won at 1309m but that was a maiden and I do wonder about her at a strong 1200m. That said, she’s the danger. 11. BELARUSKI (64) was going along okay without winning then slipped across to SA for an all the way win in a mares race. Sure this is harder but she’ll be up on the pace and could well give a sight at each-way odds. 10. FIRST PRINT (65) doesn’t win out of turn these days but there was plenty to like about her late closing fourth at Flemington in midweek company almost a month ago. Needs the breaks to go her way but in the mix if they do.

RACE 3

Not a strong race and not overly keen. 1. RADICAL (68) was a long priced winner at Moonee Valley two runs back then ran a very nice race, without a lot of luck, last week. He did run ninth but only a couple of lengths from the winner. That looked a smart field and there is much less depth in this. Hard to beat. 5. PIRAN (66) was disappointing last start and really didn’t give a yelp after having a perfect run in transit. Prepared to forgive her for that after her very impressive second-up win. Has the ability to be in the finish. 2. HEAVY (66) ran on nicely for fifth in the same race as Piran at Flemington and perhaps could have finished a little closer. Dictated to a bit here by the wide alley again so he’ll get back and be hitting the line again. 11. SKYFIRE (60) was a 100/1 chance when he finished just ahead of Heavy last time in quite a nice performance. He needs to reproduce that kind of effort but is an each-way hope and certainly won’t be triple figure odds.

RACE 4

Another wide open one and because of that I see no reason why 14. MICK’S HUSTLER (68) won’t be somewhere around the money here. He has only won two race but one thing he does do is hit the line strongly each time he goes around. He did that without all the luck when narrowly beaten at Flemington three weeks ago. Will need his share of luck again but a good each-way chance. 3. RICH JACK (79) is in his usual consistent form and there’s nothing wrong with the form coming out of his close second at Flemington on June 10. He’ll be up there in the firing line and can take running down. 1. MORANT (80) ran Rich Jack to a long neck when he resumed and his two runs since have been solid. Hasn’t won for over a year but I can see him running on down the outside late. One of the chances. 11. SPENCER STREET (72) loomed up to win at Moonee Valley two runs back then last time at the same track he simply found himself too far back as the on pacers kept going. Has a show. 2. RED CORNER (80) beat Rich Jack last start so has to be considered at 4. HANDSOME TYCOON(76) is going to need a gun ride to repeat his last start win.

RACE 5

I really like 1. DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (74) as a horse and while his Sale win third-up was on the narrow side it was still a strong win. There looks to me to be a genuine tempo on paper in this event and that’ll help offset the outside gate. If those off the pace are getting a fair go he’ll be running on very hard. 7. MIHANY (67) is the one drawn to get the gun run from gate four, if not lead, and he did show plenty of fight in his close third in a blanket finish at Flemington. Last week’s winner Clemo was behind him as was Mick’s Hustler who I like in the previous race. Good chance. 3. RAPOSO (72) overcame a slow start in his impressive Moonee Valley win two weeks ago and he won’t want to be doing that again in this field. However, he did almost deny Duke Of Brunswick the start before and has to be included in the chances. 4. DUANEO (69) wasn’t disgraced behind subsequent city winner Dodging Bullets before recording his second Adelaide win on June 20. He certainly goes well over there. That Dodging Bullets form should hold up and he’s a definite chance. 2. ACTUARIAL(73) and 8. VOLCANIC ASH (66) are also genuine hopes.

RACE 6

Races aren’t won on paper but it looks to me that 6. CHARMED HARMONY (88) is going to get an uncontested lead and if that’s the case he’s going to take plenty of running down. Gave a big sight behind Red Bomber two runs back at a mile, which was beyond him, then again stuck on well at the Valley last time. Should cruise across and is the one to beat. 8. EVERY FAITH (83) comes back from a mile after her narrow second-up win and the form from that race is good with third placed Coronation Shallan winning on Wednesday. If the distance isn’t too short she’ll be right in the finish. 7. OUR HAND OF FAITH (86) resumed with an even effort at the Valley but 1400m around Caulfield is much more his style. Usually better after a run as well and he’s entitled to improve, if he does he’ll be thereabouts. 4. ZUMA ROC (94) only had the one run last campaign for a win over a mile. His previous campaign commenced over 1400m here and he finished an eye-catching sixth so expect him to be running on and he can get into a place at least.

RACE 7

1. OUR HARMONY (74) put together two very impressive wins at Mornington before an excellent third at the Valley where she ran on well in a race where the tempo wasn’t strong. This is a fairly similar task, different track obviously, and she’s going to be finishing the race off well again. 4.LIRABIRD (68) held them all at bay at her city debut at Flemington only to be swamped in the latter stages by Faction. From gate one she’ll be right on the speed and 3kg less isn’t a bad result either. 5. SHAKESPEAREAN LASS (68) was the winner of the Moonee Valley race in question where she ran out the 1200m in good style after having the lead on her own. Expect this will be a bit different but being 100m less is in her favour. Can’t be left out. 11. TYKIATO (66) had an easy kill on the synthetic at Geelong when resuming and is an interesting runner here. Her only city start was a sound fourth behind Wild Rain back in January and that’s not bad form. Each-way. 13. REAL WARRIOR (64) is a horse I’d be throwing in the multiples, particularly if the pace goes on.

RACE 8

1. LORD OF THE SKY (106) really does pick himself here on the strength of Group 1 second placings at his last two starts. On the TJ Smith effort alone he’s entitled to beat these in a hand canter. He’s had that well publicised mishap on the way to Brisbane for the Stradbroke but that was a month ago and he has an imposing record at Caulfield. Won this race last year and wasn’t going as well. Clear top pick. 6. HEART OF A LION (90) is racing in career best form and attacks a race like this at the right time. Had the right run but it was a strong win at Morphettville two weeks ago and given a bit of speed engaged he’ll get a nice smother here. Definite chance. 9. ANGELS BEACH (99) didn’t like the soft track at Randwick second-up and she can be forgiven for that defeat. Even effort first-up after leading and if she produces her best she’s an each-way chance at weight-for-age. 2. RIZIZ(103) hasn’t raced since the Goodwood where he only beat one home but he’s much better than that. Placed in this race last year and is yet to beat Lord Of The Sky so can’t see him turning the tables. But he’s in the mix.

RACE 9

14. WORD OF MOUTH (79) was desperately unlucky at Randwick two starts back but atoned with a very dominant win at the Valley on June 20. Up in class but right down to 52kg and he’d only need to match either of his last two efforts to be very hard to beat in this even line up. 3. SELF SENSE(91) will be a big improver up to the 2000m after two runs back from a two month break. Found the line strongly late over the mile last week and backing up is a good sight. Can be up on the pace at this trip and commands respect. 2. HIOCTDANE (91) has never raced better and the timing is also right for him to have another shot in Melbourne. It’s not easy to win four races on end anywhere and he’s been showing plenty of fight when challenged. That’s a good sign and he can measure up. 1. BAGMAN (98) hasn’t won since August last year but significantly it was over the 2000m on this track with 60kg. Looked the winner at Rosehill last time but was swamped by his stablemate in the last few strides. Has to be considered a chance.

Sydney: Comprehensive preview of every race for Rosehill Gardens

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NOTE: RACES are assessed for a heavy 8. All horses are considered starters unless notified by Thursday at 1pm. (N/R) denotes no rating.

RACE 1

FITNESS will be the key more than ever on what looks like being a very testing surface. We saw as much last week all of which of leads us to ponder about where 2. VANBRUGH (N/R) is at this early stage of his ‘spring’ campaign. Chris Waller has a plethora of Golden Rose candidates and no doubt Vanbrugh is one. Whether he’s forward enough to come and out win first-up is debatable, only Waller would know, but he is certainly the best horse in the race and his trials have been quite unbelievable. 3. LET’S MAKE IT RAIN (N.R) is by my own personal favourite ‘wet track sire’ (Not A Single Doubt) and he showed enough in his two runs at his first prep to warrant serious respect. He too has trialled keenly and barrier 3/Bowman would likely suggest that he’ll be on-pace throughout which is usually the place to be. The 1200m first-up is a niggle but he’ll be there for a long, long way. 4. LABDIEN (N/R) went out after winning on debut at WF on a heavy 8 so we know she handles the ground. Speaking of which, 1. SURFIN’ SUFARI (N/R) bolted in by 5-lens on a heavy 10 at the Farm and has the race fitness on his side but he’s drawn poorly.

RACE 2

WALLER stayer 8. SIR MAKO (82) was ridden a treat by Rory Hutchings to win his Australian debut at R’wick over the 2000m on Jun. 6. We all saw him late last week in a 1900m Bm84 here when 2.4-lens 5th of the 9 in a leader dominated race. He was somewhat hampered over the final furlong and while it didn’t cost him the ultimate result, the margin is unfair. He is a heavy track winner in NZ and has won 3 from 6 on soft so everything is in his favour this weekend to bounce back. 6. LUCKY LAGO (88) has threatened to win a race for a long time but sadly the mare has been unable to convert some real eye catchers into triumph, That said, she has raced in black type affairs at all of her past four runs and finished ‘5243’ all-up and no more than 2.5-lens from the winner each time. 7.GEORGEY AEROPLANE (82) is one of the 5 (out of 10) Waller runners in the race and his penchant for the slop combined with the fact that he is third-up to a suitable trip makes him a genuine contender. Ditto for stablemate 4. REIGNING (91) who is racing as well as he ever has.

RACE 3

MIKE Moroney is a master trainer of stayers and his horses travel. Enter 7. SPACE (69), who is 1 for 1 at the track and distance. He is 5s 0-0-0 on soft but 1s for a 2nd on heavy so he we’re going to cautiously give him a ‘tick’ in the conditions. Space was lapped in the two-mile Andrew Ramsden last start finishing last some 22-odd lens from the winner La Amistad. That was back on May 23 and he’s had time to regroup and I’d imagine the previous run (3rd to Sonntag over 2800m at Flemington) stands him in good stead in what is a typically tricky race. Waller only has one in the race which is somewhat unusual. 5. SOVIET COURAGE (71) is a lightly-raced chestnut bred in Europe that posted his second career win as recently as last start in a 2600m Bm75 at R’wick on a heavy 10. He raced handy and outstayed the others — none of whom we can really vouch for as Saturday class horses, but he did put them bed quite comfortably. 4. DER MEISTER (71) was $61 last weekend when a 1.1-lens 3rd to Maurus in a 1900m Bm84. Some good judges swear by horses backing up off a good wet track run but either way, one cannot ignore the fact that this fellow is a 2400m winner at Newmarket in England prior to leaving.

RACE 4

TO call this race a lottery is putting it mildly. Indeed it wouldn’t be out of order to suggest that everyone of the 14 horses has a winning chance. Surely so when you think the bottom one in the race is none other than Lucy’s Look who was some darned impressive beating Berry Delicious here not that long ago. Speaking of Berry Delicious, I like the horse that was 1-lens 2nd to her at R’wick on the heavy 10 last start namely 8. ELLE LOU (73) from Team Hawkes. This daughter of Snitzel is out of a Snippets mare which accounts for her wet track credentials. You may also recall that she won the rich Gold Coast Magic Millions Maiden back in the Summer like and absolute champion coming from 14/16 at the turn to win by 2.3-lens. Berry Delicious’ trainer Jaosn Coyle has all his team firing at present none more so than 4. FINAL DECISION (74) who has won two of his past three including his June 13 appearance here where he ran down a brave 11. LAND GRANT (67) from the Kris Lees camp who hasn’t fared too well in the barrier stakes but he was utterly dominant winning last start at home at Newcastle on the heavy 9.

RACE 5

BOY it doesn’t get any easier as the day progresses with another ultra-competitive race to work with here. I have always maintained that there is no better fresh/first-up sire in the land than Commands which points to a bold run from Ron Dufficy’s mare 2. COMMANDING WIT (84). I don’t know the actual stats but Bowman and the Snowdens are a formidable trio at their best. As for the mare herself, she is proven beyond any doubt on wet tracks being 1 for 1 on heavy and 4s 0-1-2 on slow. She is ‘good on good’ too but that won’t count for much this weekend in the deep winter. Her trial was quite acceptable, she looked like she might drop out but she showed some ticker and class late to hang on to 2nd behind Marseille Roulette in the 1050m heavy heat at R’wick on Jun. 23. She is 4s 1-1-1 first-up and with a bit of luck she could have won more than 5 races. 1. PRIVATE SECRETARY (87) is a battle harden mare that comes off a very impressive and popular win at HQ over the 1200m on Jun. 6. Bar that disappointing 6th at R’wick in the late autumn she has been outstanding for trainer Greg Hickman. Not surprisingly she is paying the penalty for his consistency but she’s a trier. 8. FIFTYSHADESOFGREY (79) has come of age this time in work with two 2nds and a win from all runs this campaign. She has a great finish so barrier 12/12 doesn’t really count her out. 9. HOLY DELUSIONS (79) came from just behind Fiftyshadesofgrey to be beaten 1.2-lens when they met here last time.

RACE 6

A CAPACITY field for the feature and again, a wonderful line-up of fairly evenly matched sprinter/1400m types. That said, I am very keen on the Gerald Ryan trained Snitzel 3. DANCES ON STARS (97) who has some big race wins to his credit and a number of placings hence his half million dollar plus in earnings. He is 4s 1-1-1 on heavy and returns to his home track after a profitable stint up in Queensland, Granted he never won in that time but he was racing some super handy horses notably Srikandi whom he finished 3rd behind in the G2 Victory Stakes at Doomben. Dances On Stars ran credibly in the G3 Healy albeit a fair way from the winner and one-time stablemate 1.DOTHRAKI (104). Apart from Kerrin McEvoy, is anyone riding better than Brenton Avdulla? Probably not. With the greatest respect to Dothraji who is a huuuuge chance, I have the Waller pairing of 7. DIAMETRIC (93) as the main danger followed by 12. SAID COM (88). Diametric is solid first-up with 5s 3w and has trialled well but I concede he has some track/wet questions to be addressed. As for Said Com, at his best — he’d be top 3 no problem and I’ve loved his trials. Said Com had a big weight and terrible alley last Saturday and was scratched. I find it intriguing that he resumes in a Listed race.

RACE 7

I HAVE monitored the career of the former Dubbo-based galloper 12. SHIRAZ (76) since I saw him shine like a beacon in the dark one uneventful afternoon back in Dec. 2013 in the bush long ago when trained by Peter Nestor. You could just tell by looking at him that he wasn’t your average country horse and that he would make it in better races. To be honest, I didn’t think he’d be as good as he is but good luck to him, I am happy to be wrong. It takes a handy horse to win more than half of their starts but Shiraz has been so well placed by Nestor and now Tony McEvoy that he finds a way to win. This is an ask to be sure, but his draw, his weight and those two trials are in his favour. As for the wet, you’d back a Zariz to handle it. 5. BROOK ROAD (93) was borderline moral first-up and got the job done here beating Wonderbolt et al. The God’s Own mare has the enviable record of 12s 5-2-2 and I recall her being a bit unlucky from time to time as well. She is of course deadly first-up and 4s 1-1-1 second-up which is acceptable. The worst she’s seen is a soft 6 (last start) but you can’t knock her on heavy until she’s proven it one way or another. 8. CASUAL CHOICE (86) is a magnificent beast like his dear old dad, Choisir, and a horse with lots more talent that one who is 3 from 18. He had a quiet trial earlier in the week at WF but looked pretty good to me. 1. ZARATONE(100) is always a chance and what a grand horse he’s been and for the life of me I can’t see how 3.DECISION TIME (98) trials like Phar Lap but races so far below that on race day. He won his heat at WF on Monday like the horse we saw finish 2nd in a Golden Slipper which seems so long ago now. You never know?

RACE 8

WHEN I did the form on Wednesday I had God’s In Him on top then Scottish Border as the value both ahead of 4. MARENOSTRO (77) but they both came out after I’d finished so in effect I have my third pick on top under sufferance. With that said, he is flying this prep but he’ll be well found and having not tipped him at either of those two wins, it’s against ones persuasion to come in on the grouter. 4. REFER (85) is an emergency in an earlier race and so it too could be scratched which leaves me only with Marenostro’s stablemate 8. HOLLYWOODBOUND (79) and to a lesser extent, and right out of the box, 2. PLUTORIUS (82) and even 3. PYTHAGOREAN (82). It’s a terribly hard race and one that I am not at all confident about. Not much of a review I know, but it could look very different by post time to what it does now, even 16. EISENHOWER (79) might start here instead of a prior race and if so, he’s be pressing for favouritism if not the top pick with punters. My own bet would be — forget about this and have it on Sir Mako in the second race, I think he’s the standout on the program.

VIA http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/sydney-comprehensive-preview-of-every-race-for-rosehill-gardens/story-fnp8dsm2-1227424749851

Royal Ascot 2015 Beginner’s Guide: Day 1 Race by Race Preview + Tips

DAY 1: TUESDAY JUNE 16TH 

Day One of the Royal Ascot Meeting features no less than three Group 1 races, with the top class action underway with the first race of the day in the Queen Anne Stakes. Two more top class races follow in the King’s Stand Stakes and St James’s Palace Stakes before the fringe players get an airing in the remaining three races of the day.


RACE 1: GROUP 1 – QUEEN ANNE STAKES

The Queen Anne Stakes is named after the monarch who first brought racing to the Ascot downs in 1711. The Queen Anne Stakes is the second Group One race run on the first day of the Royal Ascot meeting, and is open to 4-year old and older thoroughbreds.


Run over 1 mile on Ascot Racecourse, the Queen Anne Stakes did not always enjoy the status it has today. The race was originally run as a Group 3 race, before being upgraded to Group Two status in 1984 and subsequently to Group One status in 2003.

The Queen Anne Stakes is amongst the initial Group One races run over 1 mile during the flat racing season. This means punters often have to look to the form of runners during the previous season, in order to find clues regarding their prospects for this race.

The scarcity of information on racehorse form makes the Queen Anne Stakes a notoriously tricky race to bet on. Inexperienced punters will benefit from keeping track of betting and odds in the ante-post betting markets, which are opened up several days prior to the race.

The Queen Anne Stakes is one of the few races at the Royal Ascot meeting where punters stand to gain from backing a particular trainer. Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed bin Suroor won the Queen Anne Stakes exclusively between them from 1996 to 2003, which indicates that punters should pay special attention to these trainers’ entries in their betting.

MY TIP: #1 ABLE FRIEND $3.65

  


RACE 2: THE COVENTRY STAKES
The Coventry Stakes is a group 2 flat race run as part of the annual Royal Ascot meeting in June. One of the fastest races run at the Royal Ascot meeting, the Coventry Stakes is run over a distance of 6 furlongs on Ascot Racecourse by 2 year old thoroughbred racehorses.
MY TIP: #5 BURATINO $9


RACE 3: GROUP 1 – THE KING’S STAND STAKES
The King’s Stand Stakes is a group one flat race run during the annual Royal Ascot meeting in June. The race is run over a distance of 5 furlongs on Ascot Racecourse, and is regarded as part of the Global Sprint Challenge, along with the Lightning Stakes and Golden Jubilee Stakes.

Entry to the King’s Stand Stakes is restricted to 3 year old and older racehorses, and is one of the wealthiest races run at the Royal Ascot meeting.
MY TIP: #12 SOLE POWER $5.40

  

RACE 4: GROUP 1 – ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES
The St. James Palace stakes is the first of the Group One races run at the Royal Ascot meeting. Named after the royal family’s Tudor residence, the St. James’s Palace Stakes was first run as part of the Royal Ascot meeting in 1834.
The St. James’s Palace Stakes is open only to 3-year old thoroughbred colts. The race is run over the distance of 1 mile, and first attained Group One status in 1988. The race is recognised as one of the most challenging stayer’s races on the flat racing calendar and boasts a purse of £250,000.

The St. James’s Palace Stakes is the betting highlight of the first day of the Royal Ascot meeting. As a feature race, the St. James’s Palace Stakes offers some good ante-post betting opportunities, as well as some big, active betting markets for punters interested in pool betting.

The ante-post odds for the St. James’s Palace stakes are a useful guideline for punters placing bets on this race, however, the accuracy of the betting markets tends to diminish as the more casual racing fans begin putting money into race.
The busy St. James’s Palace Stakes betting markets frequently translate into good betting special offers from some of the United Kingdom’s most reputable bookmakers. Punters will almost always benefit from looking out for bookmakers offering payout on extra places in each way betting.
MY TIP: #4 GLENEAGLES $1.68

  

RACE 5: THE ASCOT STAKES
The Ascot Stakes is a class 2 handicap flat race run annually at the Royal Ascot meeting in June. Covering a distance of 2 miles and 4 furlongs, the Ascot Stakes is one of the longest races at the Royal Ascot meeting, and is open to 4 year old and older thoroughbreds.

Pre race odds give little indication of true form in the Ascot Stakes. In fact this is one race to speculate on higher priced runners, as only one racehorse priced under 20/1 has won the Ascot Stakes during the past five years.
Long distance experience is useful for runners participating in the Ascot Stakes, and horses without wins over distances greater than a mile are unlikely to last the distance.
MY TIP: #19 HARDSTONE $27 / $5.10



RACE 6: THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES

The Windsor Castle Stakes is a listed race run over a distance of 5 furlongs. The race is run annually at the Royal Ascot meeting in June, with entry restricted to 2 year old thoroughbred racehorses. The Windsor Castle Stakes is known to attract smaller fields than other sprint events at the Royal Ascot meeting.

With the exception of Flashmans Paper’s exceptional remarkable 100/1 win in the 2008 Windsor Castle Stakes, long odds runners tend to perform poorly in the race. Short odds runners consistently show or place in the Windsor Castle Stakes, making place betting a good betting option for the race.
MY TIP: #18 SOAPY AITKEN $6

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