Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainers: John & Chris Meagher
Today’s Australian & New Zealand Selections
If you have the vision, Ladbrokes has the value
We’ve hit the halfway point of winter, which means we’re just four weekends out from the Winx Stakes, and only six weekends away from the start of the Spring Racing Carnival! The action on the track is only going to heat up from here, so what better place to prepare yourself for a jam-packed spring than Ladbrokes?
If you have the vision, Ladbrokes has the value, offering Fixed Odds +30% available across over 20 thoroughbred, greyhound and harness races this weekend. You’ll pick up an extra 30% on top of the fixed prices quoted, which means real value for every runner, paid as cash, not bonus bets, in all races listed below.
The only thing better than picking a winner is getting your pick at a top price, so head on over to Ladbrokes and back yourself today. (First, win bets only. Max bet $50. Promotional T&Cs apply and available on the website.)
This week’s races:
Saturday Thoroughbreds Randwick R1-4
Saturday Thoroughbreds Flemington R1-4
Saturday Thoroughbreds Curragh (IRE) R1 & R2
Saturday Greyhounds The Meadows R1-4
Saturday Harness Albion Park R1-4
Sunday Thoroughbreds Coffs Harbour R1-4
Back yourself with Ladbrokes!
(In order of start time)
|TE RAPA||1||5||It’s A Wonder|
|TE RAPA||3||5||Roc Cha|
|EAGLE FARM||1||9||Sienna Rose|
|KEMBLA GRANGE||1||2||Grand Eagle|
|EAGLE FARM||3||7||No Money No Honey|
|GOLD COAST||2||5||Prince Duporth|
|TE RAPA||9||7||The Heiress|
|KEMBLA GRANGE||7||2||Atomic Sunrise*|
|TOOWOOMBA||4||11||Mykiss Froma Rose|
Fox Sports is entering the legalized sports betting arena “ambitiously, aggressively, but also responsibly,” the division’s chief, Eric Shanks, declared during the Fox Corp. investor day Thursday.
Fox Bet, a new offering catering to those newly permitted to lay wagers in multiple states after a Supreme Court ruling cleared the path, will be “up and running by this football season,” Shanks said. He did not offer a detailed look at the service, which was made possible by a partnership between Fox and Canadian gambling outfit The Stars Group, which was announced yesterday.
Fox will become the first established media company to put its name on betting products aiming to compete in states with legalized betting against companies like FanDuel and DraftKings. In exchange for a $236 million investment in Stars, Fox gets about 5% of the company.
Live sports across the traditional media landscape has become a crucial element for anyone with a stake in TV or streaming, and Fox is particularly well-positioned to take advantage of it, Shanks said.“You see it now, or you regret missing it forever,” he said, noting the company will carry the Super Bowl in February and has locked up baseball’s World Series in a long-term deal.“Our rights portfolio is second to none,” he said, describing sports viewing as “the single most essential trend in our business.”In 1998, Shanks said, 25% of the top 100 programs in total ratings were sports. By 2018, with on-demand viewing and streaming redefining primetime, the percentage surged to 88%, with 63 of the top 100 programs being NFL broadcasts. (Fox indicated its view of sports by having lead play-by-play man Joe Buck deliver the introductory “please be seated” announcements today, and even disclosures about “non-GAAP accounting measures.”) For advertisers, Shanks said, “content is essentially fungible.” If brands want to reach incremental audiences, off-network, recycled programming “will always likely be available to you.” On the other hand, “if you want to build reach in chunks of five, 10 or 15 million at a time … Fox Sports is the most powerful option.”One chart that flashed on the screen tallied up total minutes of viewing in 2018, arriving at 615 billion as the total across Fox Sports and its cable siblings, FS1 and FS2. Unspoken during Shanks’ portion (though acknowledged by CEO Lachlan Murdoch and COO John Nallen) was the unloading of 22 regional sports networks as part of the Disney deal. Disney recently sold 21 of the networks to a Sinclair Broadcast Group-led set of buyers, with the flagship YES Network sold back to the New York Yankees, with Amazon and Sinclair also in the mix on that deal, which has yet to formally close.
Murdoch and Nallen both reaffirmed that Fox Corp. decided early on in the auction of the RSNs, which was agreed to by Disney as a condition of regulatory approval of the merger, that they would not seek to re-acquire the networks.
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Today represents a celebration of both music and democracy as millions of Australians gather around the Wireless and find out what has made the cut in Triple J’s Hottest 100.
We break down the contenders in our Hottest 100 betting market and we are confident we’ve found a couple of sneaky chances at juicy odds.
First things first, it’s not going to be thank u, next by Ariana Grande, which is at $101 in our market even though we all know that it should be a contender.
This year’s edition of the countdown is highly competitive and comes down to about six songs (many of them from Australian artists) that are in the mix.
Brisbane singer/rapper’s track Groceries has proven popular with the Triple J audience over the past year and is a rank outsider at $34.
There’s also Gold Coast singer Amy Shark’s – I Said Hi which has had not only a fair run on Triple J but has been on high rotation on commercial radio and will poll highly but at the $9 not high enough to be top of the pops.
Dance track “Losing it” by Fisher has also been considered a “banger” by the cool kids and could be considered a good chance at $ 6.50, but historically dance acts don’t get in the top 5 – with the exception of Flume in recent years.
Keeping in with the slow-track singer/songwriter trend, Cronulla girl Ruby Fields and her song “Dinosaurs” has featured in many people’s Hottest 100 votes when being shared on social media and could be a late bolter at $8.
The market favourite is currently Sydney band Ocean Alley with their track “Confidence”, which has had a recent groundswell of support on social media and given that people love to get behind an Aussie band to win the countdown is every chance to win at $1.57.
However, while some might be getting on the Ocean Alley bandwagon, it’s Childish Gambino’s track This is America that is the best value to win at $3. The song has had almost half a billion views on YouTube, captures the mood of the moment and the momentum behind the track, has both mainstream and Triple J audience appeal and it should be enough to see it take out this year’s countdown.
Tip: This Is America – Childish Gambino to win Triple J’s Hottest 100 @ $3.00
While some think the song is called “Tell Your Mum I said Hi” and is a tribute to Rove McManus, Amy Shark’s track “I said Hi” is highly likely to go into the top 5 and if it can get boosted to the 3rd spot is good value at $1.80.
The number 1 and number 2 spots are likely to be contested between Childish Gambino and Ocean Alley but are at Winx-like odds in this market so it’s best to think what song will take the number three spot.
Dance Track Fisher – Losing It is also good value at $2 but historically, while dance tracks have polled in the top 10 before they don’t tend to go top three.
Given the mainstream appeal of Amy Shark and influx of votes from non-Triple J listeners, “I Said Hi” has a better chance to get in the top 3.
Tip: I Said Hi – Amy Shark to finish in the Top 3 @ $1.80
Sydney singer/songwriter, Dean Lewis, with those slow acoustic softly sung songs that are all the rage throughout many of the countdown contenders this year is a good chance to poll highly in this year’s countdown with his breakup song “Be Alright”.
Another song that’s had both Triple J and mainstream appeal, expect it to go deep in the Hottest 100 poll and at $2.50 is good value in this market.
Tip: Be Alright – Dean Lewis to finish in the Top 5 @ $2.50
While the likes of Ruby Fields, Amy Shark, Fisher, Dean Lewis and co are all likely to finish in the top 10, it’s the value you need to look for in this market and it’s best to avoid Australian artists when it comes to wanting to get a decent return.
For this, you would need to look for a song that will finish around the 7-10 mark and in our market, it’s a head to head contest between English bands Bring Me the Horizon and The Wombats.
The Wombats track “Turn” is good value at $2 to get a top 10 finish but it’s the popularity based on YouTube views and airplay that should see Bring Me the Horizon’s track “MANTRA” sneak into the Top 10.
Tip: MANTRA – Bring Me The Horizon in the Top 10 @ $1.80
Getting a Like A Version song into the Hottest 100 is kind of like a free-kick from Triple J to get into the countdown. The song is a cover version and they record it for you and give it instant airplay/exposure.
Like A Version covers have been a regular feature of recent countdowns such as the 2016 Hottest 100 when cover versions of songs by Cher, Beyonce and Rihanna featured in the countdown, a feat you wouldn’t have predicted in previous countdowns.
Nonetheless, Like A Version is much of a staple of Triple J as the station itself and there has been some amazing covers over the years.
The market currently suggests that two Like A Version songs are going to feature in this year’s hottest 100 at $1.15. The suspect songs are Nothing But Thieves cover of Gang of Youth’s song “What Can I Do If The Fire Goes Out?” and Ocean Alley’s cover of 1970’s classic “Baby Come Back” by Player.
While both songs may gain a spot in the countdown, perhaps only one Like A Version will feature and is good to take at the $7 price.
Tip: One Like A Version Song in the Hottest 100 @ $7
To sound like a footy commentator going through player names as plurals you’ve got your Amy Sharks, your Ocean Alleys, Your Ruby Fields’s, Dean Lewis’ and these types of Aussie artists who are going to most likely poll in the top 10.
While we are predicting an American artist to finish at number one, there will be plenty of good local bands at the business end of the countdown.
Expect around seven to eight tracks to be in the Top 10, and at $3.75 seven Australian artists in the top 10 makes for excellent value.
Tip: Seven Australian Artists in the Hottest 100 Top 10 @ $3.75
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ONE OF THE GREAT BETTING STING’S OF MODERN ERA
In December 2005, former Sydney greyhound bookmaker Steve Fletcher pulled off a well-executed coup. Fletcher was in partnership with punting identity Eddie Hayson, a larger-than-life character known to all the corporate bookmakers as a major customer, and thought to turn over $100 million a year. He had also come to notoriety through his ownership of the well-known Sydney brothel Stiletto’s, a favourite haunt of male sporting identities looking to unwind after a tough day at the office.
A six-dog race with a long odds-on—and seemingly unbeatable— favourite was chosen for the sting. Most of the corporate bookmakers operated at the evening dog meetings, as did leading Adelaide bookmaker Curly Seal, who bore the brunt of the cleverly thought-out deception.
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Lucy’s Light was showing $1.10 on the Queensland TAB as the dogs were being loaded in the boxes; similar quotes were offered on the other two pools in Australia. Fletcher placed $16,000 on the other five dogs in the race; in a race that normally would attract only a small win pool, this was always going to alter the odds wildly. It was not until the race was underway that the extraordinary manipulation became apparent: the pool reached $85,413—greater than the combined hold on the other nine races that evening at the Gold Coast.
Bets were placed on the favourite all over Australia at Queensland TAB prices, being the home-state pool of the race meeting, and when the unbeatable Lucy’s Light flashed past the post the unbelievable win dividend of $13 was posted on the screen. The two other TAB pools provided a dividend of only $1.30, and carried investments of only about $13,000.
The group had $52 000 on Lucy’s Light with Curly Seal, exposing him to a payout of nearly $700 000. Seal refused to pay, and the matter was referred to the South Australian Office of Gaming. Seal eventually lost and was ordered to pay.
The group netted over $1 million in the Lucy’s Light coup. Within 18 months a smaller operation was pulled at Gawler dogs. A $1.25 favourite was backed on two of the other pools, enabling those behind the manipulation to get odds between $3.20 and $9.50 from various corporate bookmakers operating from the Northern Territory, who use a formula based on paying slightly higher than the middle of the three tote dividends.
A similar coup was unleashed at a provincial meeting in Horsham, Victoria, in January 2012, but the corporate bookies had reduced their exposure by implementing a ‘get out’ clause, which stated that if they believed that the betting pools had been manipulated there would be a tight cap on their payout.