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Melbourne Cup

2015 Melbourne Cup In-Depth Runner x Runner Analysis

COMPILED BY THE WILLIAM HILL WOLF

1. Snow Sky ($51)
Weight: 58kg
Jockey/Trainer: Moore/Stoute
Barrier: 16
He was rocks-solid on his Australian debut running an honest fifth in the Caulfield Cup. Had every possible chance to win the race though. Perhaps looking for more ground? So the two miles should suit. Four starts ago he beat Brown Panther over 2816m at York with Havana Beat back in third. After that he took the scalp of Eagle Top in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes, leading from start to finish. Forget his more resent King George failure as he hates wet tracks. All in all, needs to lift on his Caulfield Cup effort to be in the money here.

Snow Sky’s fifth in the Caulfield Cup:

Bet on the latest Melbourne Cup market.2. Criterion ($16)
Weight: 57.5kg
Barrier: 4
Jockey/Trainer: Walker/Hayes & Dabernig
Has become one of Australia’s best WFA horses over the past few seasons. Has been globetrotting recently and he wasn’t disgraced against some of the world’s most elite gallopers. Returned top Australia with a terrific win in the Caulfield Stakes first-up before running a gallant second to Winx in the Cox Plate. He didn’t have the clearest of runs either so was entitled to finish a touch closer to the runaway winner. Yet to be tried over two miles but did win an ATC Derby on a heavy track, suggesting he has good staying capacity. Still, such a big query.

Criterion’s second to Winx:

3. Fame Game ($4)
Weight: 57kg
Jockey/Trainer: Purton/Manukata
Barrier: 12
Connections controversially looked to have used the Caulfield Cup as nothing more than a barrier trial. When Zac Purton found a bit of room and gave him a little click there was a lot to like about the way he charged through the field.  This Japanese-based six-year-old ran an outstanding second in the G1 Tenno Sho the start prior, behind the world class stayer Gold Ship. He is a genuine two-miler and has the ominous second-up record of 5:2-0-1. Nothing will be left in the tank this time. Deserved favourite but the price looks a tad skinny.

Fame Game’s second in the Tenno:

Bet on the latest Melbourne Cup market.

4. Our Ivanhowe ($26)
Weight: 56kg
Jockey/Trainer: Melham/Freedman
Barrier: 22
There’s a sense of timing about this Freedman-trained import. Already a two-time Group One winner in Germany, this six-year-old showed a glimpse of what he is capable of in the Bart Cummings with 60kg on his back before continue his upward trend with a Caulfield Cup third. Can he improve enough though? Right stable at least.

Our Ivanhowe’s German Derby romp:

5. Big Orange ($51)
Weight: 55.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Spencer/Bell
Barrier: 23
Races on speed and loves firm tracks. What really puts him in the mix is his win over Trip To Paris in the Goodwood Cup two starts ago. It was a three-way finish with Quest For More running second. Trip To Paris meets him 2kg better for that defeat so some query there. Forget his Lonsdale Cup failure as he didn’t go a yard in the wet. Despite the weight turnaround, if you give Trip To Paris a leading hope, don’t leave Big Orange out of your numbers. He’s a big horse with a long stride so Flemington should suit.

6. Hartnell ($31)
Weight: 55.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: McDonald/O’Shea
Barrier: 17
Hit the ground running in Australia over the autumn, highlighted by his BMW win over highly-rated Japanese import To The World. Failed in the Sydney Cup as $1.65F but he led and overraced so it was little guide to his two mile credentials. Did win a 3219m event earlier in his career overseas. Returned in the spring with a couple of sensational trials suggesting a big carnival was in store. However, failed to impress in the Chelmsford or Turnbull. Hit the line nicely in the Cox Plate to suggest he was somewhat back on track. Suspect he’ll be ridden very quiet to get him to relax.

Hartnell’s victory in the 2015 BMW:

7. Hokko Brave ($26)
Weight: 55.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Williams/Matsunaga
Barrier: 20
Arrived in Australia not as well credentialed as Fame Game – he ran sixth in the Tenno Sho – and didn’t change that notion with his Caulfield Cup run finishing one length behind his fellow countryman. Hokko was flattered by the margin though as when Fame Game was starting to get warm, Hokko was starting to feel the pinch. Can only improve on his Caulfield Cup run. However, he is an eight-year-old so perhaps he has been targeted at the Cup a year or two too late.

Hokko Brave’s third in the G2 Nikkei Sho three starts ago:

8. Max Dynamite ($14)
Weight: 55kg
Jockey/Trainer: Dettori/Mullins
Barrier: 2
Interesting that seven of his past nine runs have been over hurdles. In those two that weren’t he ran second to Quest For More in the Northumberland (that form ties in with Trip To Paris) and blitzed his rivals in the Lonsdale Cup by 4.5L. Liked the turn of foot he displayed in that most recent win. Has to be respected.

Max Dynamite’s recent piece of work at Flemington:

9. Red Cadeuax ($31)
Weight: 55kg
Jockey/Trainer: Mosse/Dunlop
Barrier: 8
Tackles his fifth Melbourne Cup! Yes fifth! There’d be no more popular winner of the Cup if this now 10-year-old got his dues with three runner-up medals already to his name. We’ve learnt by now to largely disregard his lead-up form as the ‘Big Red’ thrives in Australia. He’s not getting any younger but there’s no doubt that he’ll be thereabouts. Looks particularly well weighted this year.

Red Cadeuax’s first Melbourne Cup run:

10. Trip To Paris ($8.50)
Weight: 55kg
Jockey/Trainer: Berry/Dunlop
Barrier: 14
Didn’t expect him to be as sharp as he was in the Caulfield Cup, running a terrific second to Mongolian Khan. His closing sectionals were as good as anything in the race including Fame Game. Won the G1 Ascot Gold Cup over 4023m a few starts back beating Kingfisher so there is zero question that he’ll be strong at the end of the Melbourne Cup. On the strength of his Caulfield Cup, has to be a leading player. What is also to like about this five-year-old is he is in career-best form winning four of his past eight and placing in a further three. Ed Dunlop of course knows plenty about preparing a Cup winner, having tuned up Red Cadeuax in the past.

Click here to see Trip To Paris outstaying his rivals in the Ascot Gold Cup.

11. Who Shot Thebarman ($21)
Weight: 54.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Shinn/Waller
Barrier: 6
The form card reads 7th,5th,8th and 7th but don’t you worry, this seven-year-old is right on track for his Cup grand final. Ran third last year and looks to be going every bit as well this time around. Guess the query is how much stronger this year’s Cup is. He is a genuine two-miler so will beat home more than beat him.

Who Shot Thebarman’s third in last year’s Cup:

12. Sky Hunter ($51)
Weight: 54kg
Jockey/Trainer: Buick/Suroor
Barrier: 7
Classy galloper that began his career in France before Godolphin came knocking. His form suggests he excels on wet ground (as evidenced by his (9L demolition of his rivals in the St Simon) but is capable of running well on all surfaces. As a form reference we can relate to, he was sixth behind Mount Athos finishing 5L back. His most recent victory was in the City of Gold at Dubai.

Sky Hunter’s City Of Gold victory:

13. The Offer ($41)
Weight: 54kg
Jockey/Trainer: Oliver/Waterhouse
Barrier: 13
Was the early favourite for last year’s Cup after he won the 2014 Sydney Cup but injury curtailed his campaign. Hasn’t had the most conventional preparation for a Cup (in fact it’s damn bizzare kicking off at the Gold Coast going via various country cups) but it is the wizard Gai Waterhouse we are talking about here. Was largely forgotten about prior to last start where he threw his hat back into the ring with a strong Bendigo Cup win with 59kg. Ollie and Waterhouse combined for Fiortente. Would need rain to be competitive at this level though.

The Offer’s 2014 Sydney Cup win:

14. Grand Marshall ($31)
Weight: 54kg
Jockey/Trainer: Cassidy/Waller
Barrier: 15
Not dissimilar to Who Shot Thebarman, in that he is sticking over perfectly for his grand final the Melbourne Cup. Was the unlucky runner in the Caulfield Cup and should have finished much closer. There’s no doubt that he’ll stay as he already has a Sydney Cup to his name, where he only warmed up the last 400m. Does he have the class to win a Cup though?

Grand Marshal’s 2015 Sydney Cup win:

15. Preferment ($9)
Weight: 53.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Bowman/Waller
Barrier: 11
Was so tough beating subsequent Metrop winner Magic Hurricane in the Hill Stakes before winning the G1 Turnbull at WFA. The form book reads 9th for the Cox Plate but he was completely unsuited and The Wolf thought he did more than enough. That Turnbull win made it two from two at Flemington (after the VIC Derby). The weight-for-age path has been carefully picked by Chris Waller and he has masterfully beaten the handicapper. Barrier 11 perfect. Top pick!

Preferment’s Turnbull win:

Bet on the latest Melbourne Cup market.

16. Quest For More ($101)
Weight: 53.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Lane/Charlton
Barrier: 21
Failed horribly in the Geelong Cup but was done little favours by the wide gate and had to lump 59kg. Still, he’d want to sharpen up his act quick smart off that. His form prior is around Big Orange and Trip To Paris so perhaps be forgiving in including a victory in the Northumberland. Can stay all day so don’t be concerned about the extra trip. Task not made easier from the gate.

Quest For More saluting in the Northumberland:

17. Almoonqith ($16)
Weight: 53kg
Jockey/Trainer: Dunn/Hayes & Dabernig
Barrier: 10
David Hayes was tipping up this stayer all spring but only after his dominant Geelong Cup win have people started to take notice. His start prior to that was very good too when set an impossible task in the Metrop. Outside of the winner Magic Hurricane, his run was perhaps next best. The Geelong Cup has provided Media Puzzle, Dandino and Americain recently so don’t discount that form line. He beat Dandino in this year’s Geelong Cup who had been running very well in WFA features prior. Big player for an red-hot stable.

Almoonqith’s latest piece of work at Flemington:

18. Kingfisher ($26)
Weight: 53kg
Jockey/Trainer: O’Donoghue/O’Brien
Barrier: 9
Aiden O’Brien has always had a good opinion of this son of Galileo. His early form through the likes of Australia and Free Eagle is world class. He has an easy victory over It’s Somewhat too, a horse that has proven competitive in Sydney with John O’Shea since. Ran second to Trip To Paris in the Ascot Gold Cup only three starts ago so has had the grounding for this. Could he be the horse that gives O’Brien his allusive Cup? The Wolf says no.

Kingfisher’s second to star stablemate and now stallion Australia:

Bet on the latest Melbourne Cup market.

19. Prince Of Penzance ($81)
Weight: 53kg
Jockey/Trainer: Payne/Weir
Barrier: 1
Incredibly, jockey Michelle Payne has ridden Prince in 22 of his 23 starts. Despite his improved second in the MV Cup when Payne really ran them along, he was a little flattered by the way the track played and it’s unlikely he’s doing anything other than making up the Cup numbers. His only previous Group One run was in the Memsie first-up.

Prince Of Penzance’s first-up Mesmie run:

20. Bondi Beach ($26)
Weight: 52.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Prebble/O’Brien
Barrier: 18
So sparingly-raced is this four-year-old (just five starts to his name) that he’d become the second most-lightly raced horse to ever win the Cup, behind only Martini-Henri in 1883. He was involved in one of the more bizarre racing events recently, whereby he won the St Leger on protest only to have it overturned some months later. Has never finished worse than second. Has the quality but such a task for such an experienced horse.

Bondi Beach’s controversial St Leger:

21. Sertorius ($201)
Weight: 52.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Newitt/Edwards
Barrier: 5
Has snuck into the field on the back of a couple of late withdrawals in Mongolian Khan and Beaten Up. On his recent, form this looks a bridge too far. Way too far. At his best he an fourth in a BMW behind Silent Achiever.

Sertorius’ fourth in the 2014 BMW:

22. The United States ($21)
Weight: 52.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Moriera/Hickmott
Barrier: 3
Looked as though he was going to be squeezed out of the field by the Lexus winner but Lloyd Williams threw a massive late spanner into the works by withdrawing well-fancied stablemate Amralah due to vet’s treatment. He was reportedly fuming! The United States was a strong winner of the MV Cup at his last outing, aided by a Hugh Bowman gem and the track’s fast lane on the fence. He broke the track record in the process. He might be six years old but suspect we still haven’t seen the very best he has to offer just yet. Not without a fluker’s hope from a powerful spring stable.

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Bet on the latest Melbourne Cup market.

23. Excess Knowledge ($21)
Weight: 51kg
Jockey/Trainer: McEvoy/Waterhouse
Barrier: 24
Snuck into the field by the Lexus back door surviving a protest from Zanteca. Had been knocking on the door all preparation but really appreciated the swap over to Flemington. Gives the impression that 3200m won’t be a problem and on the quick back-up, with five runs under the belt, he won’t be beaten on the score of fitness. Top ten finish likely.

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24. Gust Of Wind ($31)
Weight: 51kg
Jockey/Trainer: Chad Schofield/Sargent
Barrier: 19
Had been building nicely into her Caulfield Cup start where she stayed on bravely. Chad was a victim of circumstances being held up for longer than he’d have liked as she is a genuine stayer that needs time to go through the gears. The best part about her run there was how she surged again very late to close off the second wave of horses behind here and hold fourth. This is harder again but afforded more room this time and out to two miles expect another honest effort. She did take the scalp of Winx in the Oaks remember.

Gust Of Wind’s Oaks win over Winx:

The Wolf’s Top 5
1. Preferment
2. Fame Game
3. Almoonqith
4. Red Cadeaux
5. Trip To Paris

Odds as of Saturday 31 October at 7:30pm.

Bet on the latest Melbourne Cup market.

2015 Melbourne Cup King Tip

Melbourne Cup King Bet / King Tip History

2015 MELBOURNE CUP KING TIP:

#10 TRIP TO PARIS 

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This year’s Melbourne Cup will be my 19th bet/tip on the great race dating back too my primary school days.

It’s been a race I’ve had great success in backing 8 of the past 18 winners with two placings.

The last two years have been horrific for me though, each time my horse had to be euthanised on the Flemington track after failing to complete to circuit! So I hope for my sake….and very much for the sake of my 2015 pick that this trend abates!

I’ve labelled this year’s Melbourne Cup King Tip as my strongest bet in the race since 2005 when I collected large on Makybe Diva even though I’ve found 3 winners since then. I’m ultra confident with Trip To Paris! His Caulfield Cup run was terrific for a horse who was coming of a career best wi that was over 4023m in the 2015 Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. The 2400m didn’t suit one bit, but he still produced the fastest 600, 400 & 200m splits in the Caulfield Cup to run 2nd. Very well weighted with 55kg. His trainer Ed Dunlop hasn’t won the Cup but he has of course run second in it three occasions with Red Cadeaux so he’s familiar with the race. It’s been well stated how unlucky Fame Game was (how little they tried) but he still got clear late and couldn’t sprint his last furlong as quickly as Trip To Paris. He’s also got 57kg which only 3 horses in the past 50years since weights became metric, have carried to victory.

They are all saying the rise to 3200m is a huge plus for Fame Game, but failing to mention it’s an even bigger bonus for Trip To Paris! I think the dangers to Paris are Preferment – who knows how good? Suited at weights! Red Cadeaux – overdue to win race & Our Ivanhoe – classy stayer fully fit now in Lee Freedman’s care who has won 5 Melbourne Cups!

2015- TRIP TO PARIS – ???

2014- Admire Rakti – Broke Down 

2013- Verema – Broke Down 

2012- Americain – 11th

2011- Dunaden – WON 

2010- Americain – WON

2009- Shocking – WON 

2008- Master O’Reilly – 4th

2007- Mahler – 3rd

2006- Maybe Better – 3rd 

2005- Makybe Diva – WON

2004- Makybe Diva – WON

2003- Makybe Diva – WON

2002- Media Puzzle – WON

2001- Maythehorsebewithyou – 5th

2000- Freemason – 6th

1999- Sky Heights – 17th

1998- Joss Sticks – 10th 

1997- Might and Power – WON

Are you going to follow our Tip or go your own way? Please let us know by commenting below…..

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WKR PANEL MEMEBERS MELBOURNE CUP TIPS 

2015 Melbourne Cup Tips

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Here’s what our team think for The Cup


Mitch @mitchfenton88

10.Trip To Paris *

4.Our Ivanhoe 

15.Preferment

22.The United States

20.Bondi Beach

free Australian horse racing tips
The General @thegeneralwkr

15.Preferment

3.Fame Game

9.Red Cadeaux

10.Trip To Paris

8.Max Dynamite

free Australian horse racing tips

O.L.F @outtaleftfield

15.Preferment

2.Criterion

10.Trip To Paris

6.Hartnell

12.Sky Hunter

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WHATS YOUR TIP? COMMENT ON THIS POST BELOW WITH YOUR TOP 3 & IF YOU JAG THE TRIFECTA WE’LL SLING YOU $50 CASH! ……….comment below………

Enter our 2015 Melbourne Cup Sweep sponsored by BlueBet & win

It’s not a Melbourne Cup without a Melbourne Cup sweep and WKR has your official 2015 Cup Sweep, that’s free too play – with great prizes on offer to the winners thanks to BlueBet, the newest online bookie on the Australian market from ex-sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan – True Blue Betting!

Only 24 names can be drawn, so get your name in the Sweep Barrel.

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Last – $25 Betting Account from BlueBet

2015 Melbourne Cup Final Field with Barriers

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Race 7 – Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES) – OFFICIAL FIELD – 
Of $6,000,000.1st $3,600,000, 2nd $900,000, 3rd $450,000, 4th $250,000, 5th $175,000, 6th $125,000, 7th $125,000, 8th $125,000, 9th $125,000, 10th $125,000 GROUP 1
Handicap, Minimum Weight 50kg, Apprentices cannot claim.Field Limit: 24
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Hcp Rating
1 SNOW SKY (GB) Sir Michael Stoute Ryan Moore 16 58kg 115
2 CRITERION (NZ) David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Michael Walker 4 57.5kg 116
3 FAME GAME (JPN) Yoshitada Munakata Zac Purton 12 57kg 113
4 OUR IVANHOWE (GER) Lee & Anthony Freedman Ben Melham 22 56kg 112
5 BIG ORANGE (GB) Michael Bell Jamie Spencer 23 55.5kg 110
6 HARTNELL (GB) John O’Shea James McDonald 17 55.5kg 112
7 HOKKO BRAVE (JPN) Yasutoshi Matsunaga Craig Williams 20 55.5kg 110
8 MAX DYNAMITE (FR) William Mullins Frankie Dettori 2 55kg 109
9 RED CADEAUX (GB) Ed Dunlop Gerald Mosse 8 55kg 109
10 TRIP TO PARIS (IRE) Ed Dunlop Tommy Berry 14 55kg 109
11 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) Chris Waller Blake Shinn 6 54.5kg 109
12 SKY HUNTER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor William Buick 7 54kg 108
13 THE OFFER (IRE) Gai Waterhouse Damien Oliver 13 54kg 108
14 GRAND MARSHAL (GB) Chris Waller Jim Cassidy 15 53.5kg 106
15 PREFERMENT (NZ) Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 11 53.5kg 113
16 QUEST FOR MORE (IRE) Roger Charlton Damian Lane 21 53.5kg 107
17 ALMOONQITH (USA) David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Dwayne Dunn 10 53kg 1.0kg 105
18 KINGFISHER (IRE) Aidan O’Brien Colm O’Donoghue 9 53kg 106
19 PRINCE OF PENZANCE (NZ) Darren Weir Ms Michelle Payne 1 53kg 105
20 BONDI BEACH (IRE) Aidan O’Brien Brett Prebble 18 52.5kg 112
21 SERTORIUS Jamie Edwards Craig Newitt 5 52.5kg 101
22 THE UNITED STATES (IRE) Robert Hickmott Joao Moreira 23 52.5kg 2.5kg 104
23 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) Gai Waterhouse Kerrin McEvoy 24 51kg 101
24 GUST OF WIND (NZ) John Sargent Chad Schofield 19 51kg 104

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2015 Melbourne Cup Tips inc. Our Special to win!

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The final field for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup will be declared after the last at Flemington today with barriers to be drawn after the declaration of the final 24 runners.

“WKR’s OFFICIAL 2015 IN-DEPTH MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW” will be available Sunday afternoon with analysis of all 24 runners and their hopes in the 2015 Melbourne Cup.
However I’ve settled on my numbers for ‘The race that stops a nation’ & I’m very confident we’ve got the winner on top, in-fact I’ve made our top pick a special. The last time I was so confident regarding a single runners winning hopes in a Melbourne Cup was in 2005 with Makybe Diva who as history tells, went on to win the race and claim an historic 3rd consecutive Melbourne Cup. I have bet accordingly, and will have another crack if odds dictate so.

2015 MELBOURNE CUP TIPS

1.Trip To Paris ***wkr special***

2.Fame Game

3.Red Cadeaux

4.Snow Sky

5.Almoonqith

SUGGESTED BETS

Win BetTrip To Paris @ $7.50

Each Way BetRed Cadeaux $31.00 & $8.00

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Derby Day Tips – Flemington – Saturday 31 October, 2015

It’s every racing purists favourite race day on the calendar VRC Derby Day at Flemington! There are a grand total of 9 events on the first Saturday of the Melbourne Cup carnival annually, of which no less are run at Group 1 level. To support the four races at the elite level are 3x Group 3 level races & 2x Group 2 events. It’s a racing extravaganza!!!

The 4 group 1 races run on the card are;

  • $1,500,000 AAMI Victoria Derby (3 year olds – 2500m)
  • $500,000 Coolmore Stud Stakes (3 year olds – 1200m)
  • $1,000,000 Longines Mackinnon Stakes (Open WFA – 2000m)
  • $500,000 Myer Classic (Fillies & Mares 3yo+ SW – 1600m)

Derby Day is also the very last opportunity for horses to qualify for the 2015 Melbourne Cup, with two passages through to the great race on offer. The traditional route is through the Mackinnon Stakes with the winner of the 2000m affair guaranteed a start in the following Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. However this is option, despite producing countless Melbourne Cup winners, is seldom used in 2015. The other option to get into the final field of 24 for the Melbourne Cup is the Lexus Stakes. It is often viewed as the “very last chance” to gain a start in the great race, with the winner exempt from ballot & therefore guaranteed a Cup berth. It is hotly contested each year as usually all runners in the Lexus Stakes are looking for that 1 exemption into the Melbourne Cup, with their current rank in the Melbourne Cup ‘order of entry’ not good enough to see them gain a start in the Cup.

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Here are this year’s Derby Day tips;

RACE 1 – $200,000 Group 3 – Carbine Club Stakes

2015 Tip: #3 BASSETT

RACE 2 – $300,000 Group 2 – Wakeful Stakes:

2015 Tip: #1 MY POPPETTE

RACE 3 – $200,000 Group 3 – Guerva Stakes

2015 Tip: #3 DISPOSITION

RACE 4 – $500,000 Group 1 – Coolmore Stud Stakes

2015 Tip: #1 EXOSPHERE

RACE 5 – $300,000 Group 3 – Lexus Stakes

2015 Tip: #6 HAVANA COOLER

RACE 6 – $1,000,000 Group 1 – Mackinnon Stakes

2015 Tip: #9 MAGIC HURRICANE

RACE 7 – $1,500,000 Group 1 – VRC Derby

2015 Tip: #2 SHARDS

RACE 8 – $500,000 Group 1 – Myer Classic

2015 Tip: #1 ROYAL DESCENT

RACE 9 – $300,000 Group 2 – TAB.COM.AU Stakes

2015 Tip: #6 DELECTATION

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BEST BET: RACE 9 – 6 DELECTATION

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2015 Cox Plate: In-Depth Runner by Runner Preview, Tips, Best Bets & Selections.

WS_CoxPlate_Sat_765x214

It looks a vintage Cox Plate the 2015 edition, and while it’s always a good race the appearance of three Gr1 class European raiders in the final field of 14 adds a huge amount of excitement and anticipation to ‘Australasia’s WFA Championship’, that’s fast becoming the ‘WFA Championship of the World’. It’s never easy backing the winner and this year it looks particularly hard, but we’ll do our best as always to help you find the winner of the race and walk away from the day with the cash in your pocket.

CoxPlateCarnival

2015 Cox Plate In-Depth Preview

To compare the local form for the Cox Plate it’s important to go back through the last 3 or 4 runs this Spring and line up the horses when / if they met each other.

5 of the 11 local runners come here via the 2000m Gr1 Caulfield Stakes that was run at this track on the 10/10/15. Those 5 are: Criterion, Happy Trails, Pornichet, Kermadec & Fawkner. They finished relatively to each other as follows;

1st [+0.5L] Criterion (59) 13-2
2nd [-0.5L] Happy Trails (59) 15-1
4th [-1.4L] Kermadec (58) 5-2
6th [-6.2L] Fawkner (59) 13-4
8th [-8.7L] Pornichet (59) 11-2

(3rd in the race, very interesting to note, was dominant Caulfield Cup winner from last Saturday Mongolian Khan. The obviously stamps this form as very good, and immediately demands that you pay very close attention to the runs around him in the race)

Here’s a snap-shot of how the race developed from the 600m to the top of the straight to the finish post.

600M

Caulfield Stakes @ 600m mark

STRAIGHTENING FOR HOME

Caulfield Stakes straightening

FINISH

Caulfield Stakes finish

Criterion came from 2nd last at the 600m, circled the field and was a fair bit too strong for them. His run was the race best, although only narrowly because Kermadec was also very good. Criterion clocked the fastest last 800m, 600m & 400m times in the event. His last 200m was the 2nd fastest behind Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan only.

His sectionals read;

600m / 400m / 200m

Kermadec was last at the 600m and buried away over on the rails with no where to go. He ended up switching to the outside and once clear he ran home very well. His 600/400/200m splits were 2nd fastest, 2nd fastest, 3rd fastest in the race. Criterion went fractionally quicker over 600 & 400 while as mentioned Mongolian Khan ran the fastest last 200m. His sectionals read;

600m / 400m / 200m

Happy Trails was out dashed on cornering when Criterion wen straight past him, but as he always does he rallied back well and never shirked the task to finish 2nd. It was a pleasing run.

Fawkner put in an absolute shocker which is very unlike him, usually representing a model of consistency. He was vetted post race & stewards quizzed connections over the run but no light was shed as to why he dropped out so sharply by his standards. Definitely not a good lead up run for a Cox Plate!

Pornichet just didn’t measure up to the grade, he over raced  a bit which he often tends to do & also shod a plate, but was beaten too far. I’ve been against the horse all prep and that was enough to convince me he will not become the first horse ever to complete the rarified Toowoomba Cup / Cox Plate double!!

Hartnell & Preferment arrive at the Valley coming through the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m at Gr1 at Flemington.

1.CRITERION – (7) – $6.50 & $2.30 (out from $5.50)

Globe trotting entire who has proven himself one of the true current superstars of the Australian turf. 7th in this race last year but was safely held at all times but the leading division and never raised a winning hope for backers. It has to be said he’s going better this year than he was then though.

Since last year’s race he’s won the $4million QE Stakes at Royal Randwick during The Championships, ten embared on a 3 run overseas adventure- 1 run in HK when 3rd in the Gr1 QEII Cup over 2000m, then 2 runs in England when 5th in the Gr1 Prince of Wales & 6th in the Gr1 Juddmonte International. He was 5.6L off the winner, Golden Horn was a narrow 2nd so Criterion was 5.5L off him. I say this because Highland Reel was 4L off champion 3yo Golden Horn last start, so on that alone the lean is toward Highland Reel over Criterion. That said Criterion is in great order after returning home and storming to victory in the Caulfield Stakes, which has already thrown up the Caulfield Cup winner.

Sure to run well, he’s bombproof at the moment.

2.FAWKNER – (14) – $13.00 & $4.00 (solid)

Resumed his old self first up in the Gr1 Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington over the mile, winning another group 1, his 3rd.

Didn’t quiet show customary dash 2nd up in the Gr1 Underwood but still whacked away to eventually finish a nose 2nd in a driving 3 way go. He was somewhat below his best but it was a totally forgivable below best type of run…

Last start in the Caulfield Stakes though it was alarm bells ringing. He travelled in a lovely spot on what was a soft tempo, but he went like a pricked balloon down the running dropping right out in a fashion we’ve never before seen from this super honest grey. He was vetted, and they revealed no abnormalities. It was enough to put me right off him. Only on pure trust could I back him after what he did that day.

Take on trust only. Don’t be surprised if he turns things around sharply though.

3.HAPPY TRAILS – (13) – $17 & $4.80 (out from $13)

Veteran Adelaide horse Happy Trails breathed life into an ordinary campaign with a second-place result behind Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes, trumping Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan, but will have to overcome a wide barrier (13) if it’s to figure in the finish at Moonee Valley. A win would surprise but not totally shock me as you always know he’ll run well and give his all.

Sure to run his honest race, maybe that might just be good enough if he gets the luck.

4.HARTNELL – (3) –$17 & $4.80 (out from $13)

Sydney gelding Hartnell left his run too late in the Turnbull Stakes, rocketing home from 15th with 400m to go to finish sixth, less than two lengths behind winner Preferment. This time Hartnell will enjoy a more favourable barrier (3), though will concede an extra half a kilogram to Preferment.

Showed in the Autumn when blitzing all comers in the BMW Gr1 2400m at WFA that he’s got the class to win Gr1 WFA races. I just wonder if now the 2040m might be too short? In any case he’s sure to be attacking the line. With The Cleaner here setting the pace, he’s sure to get it run to suit his run-on pattern.

Can win.

5.MOURINHO – (12) – $26.00 $ $7.00 (solid)

The Underwood was the latest chapter in Mourinho’s love affair with Caulfield and the eight-year-old bay gelding has also won five times at Moonee Valley, though he finished four lengths sixth in the Dato Tan Chin Nam.

Wouldn’t it be great to see the Gelogatis boys train the winner of the Cox Plate! There’d be free fish & chips in Moe for a year!

6.THE CLEANER – (2) – $21 & $5.50 (solid)

Cult horse The Cleaner, the ‘Longford Lion’, rarely runs a bad race and has again figured prominently this Spring, finishing third behind Mourinho and Fawkner in the Underwood Stakes after winning the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes in early September. We know what we’ll get from him, he’ll roll forward and set a hot tempo and try to keep running.

Wouldn’t the crowd tear the roof off Moonee Valley if The Cleaner could clean up his more fancied rivals!

7.PORNICHET – (11) – $26.00 & $7.00 (solid)

Gai Waterhouse’s lone runner and Doomben Cup winner Pornichet (remains in the Cox Plate frame but with a significant question mark after finishing last, more than eight lengths behind Criterion, in the Caulfield Stakes. But his run behind Kermadec and Royal Descent in the Group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick proved that when things go his way he can mix it with the heavy hitters.

You could back him because the hall of fame legend Gai Waterhouse prepares but you couldn’t if your purely assessing him on last run.

8.AROD – (5) – $9.00 & $3.00 (solid)

(For an in-depth look at every run in Arod’s career + detailed form analysis + replay’s of his runs go to; https://weekendking.com.au/2015/10/20/2015-cox-plate-detailed-look-at-the-form-race-replays-of-the-3-international-cox-plate-horses/)

I’ve been swept away watching his latest replay when a narrow 2nd in the Sussex Stakes behind world super-star Solow. He pushed Solow more than any horse has in this winning run of 6 races (5xGr1) that he’s on. He almost looked as though he was going to beat him for a stride but Solow, the champion that he is, dug the deepest. He’s 2/2 at the trip that’s no concern, and very importantly will make his own luck probably tucking in for cover behind mad leader The Cleaner. If he runs up to that Sussex effort boy I think he’ll take plenty of beating here. A great wager at $9, on an each way basis.

9.COMPLACENT- (6) – $21.00 & $5.50 (solid)

Complacent has done little wrong this campaign for the powerful Godolphin stable, hitting the front a long way from home in the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes and withstanding a charge from Cox Plate fancy Kermadec.

The John O’Shea-trained five-year-old also ran third in the Hill Stakes, a length behind winner Preferment, and then beat stablemate Hauraki in the Group 3 Craven Plate.

He’s only a very lightly raced 4 year old, so his form is very much still on the upward spiral. With the necessary improvement, he could quiet easily figure.

10.GAILO CHOP – (8) – $21.00 & $5.50 (out from $17)

(For an in-depth look at every run in Gailo Chop’s career + detailed form analysis + replay’s of his runs go to; https://weekendking.com.au/2015/10/20/2015-cox-plate-detailed-look-at-the-form-race-replays-of-the-3-international-cox-plate-horses/)

Very honest and has won numerous group races but doesn’t seem right up to the very best level. He’d some chance in the Cox Plate but it would be quiet a surprise as I’m leaning towards the other 2 overseas horses as the main international chances.

Place hope.

11.KERMADEC – (10) – $7.50 & $2.60 (solid)

Kermadec wasn’t quite good enough to chase down Criterion and Happy Trails in his first run over 2000m in the Caulfield Stakes, though jockey Glen Boss was buoyed by the performance and said he was confident the four-year-old would be right in the mix at Moonee Valley. His run last start in the Caulfield Stakes was terrific and he gives the sense he won’t have an issue with the 2040m.

Great chance of giving Waller his first ‘major’.

12.PREFERMENT – (9) – $13.00 & $4.00 (solid)

Preferment rounds out Waller’s three Cox Plate contenders and is unbeaten over 2000m, including his last two starts in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and Group 2 Hill Stakes at Randwick. Nash Rawiller is set to pilot the four-year-old after regular mount Blake Shinn was suspended for eight meetings for careless riding at Seymour on Sunday. That’s no big loss as Nash is a big time rider. 

There’s no telling just how good this horse may be. He looked nothing but at genuine stayer at 3, but now as a newly 4yo he’s showed dash like I never thought possible for the horse. He’s a chance on class alone although I really get the distinct impression having followed him throughout his career that he’ll be better off over 3200m in the Melbourne Cup.

We know he’s good. If he wins this he’s a champion, because I don’t see how they’d deny him in the Melbourne Cup if he’s too classy here!

13.HIGHLAND REEL – (4) – $5.00 & $2.00 (solid)

(For an in-depth look at every run in Highland Reel’s career + detailed form analysis + replay’s of his runs go to; https://weekendking.com.au/2015/10/20/2015-cox-plate-detailed-look-at-the-form-race-replays-of-the-3-international-cox-plate-horses/)

Last start was a career highlight running world champion horse Golden Horn to 4L in the Irish Champion Stakes. Is that good enough to win a Cox Plate? It definitely could be he’s impossible to dismiss as having no chance. Will be in the front half of the field & has plenty of similarities to last year’s winner & former stablemate Adelaide.

He’s a terrific chance.

14.WINX – (1) – $7.00 & $2.50 (solid)

Unbeaten at her last four starts, including a pair of Group 1s, Sydney mare Winx will have the added advantage of carrying the bottom weight of 55.5kg. The Chris Waller-trained four-year-old mare copped bad interference around the home turn in the Epsom Handicap at Randwick on October 3 but was still far too good, saluting by more than two lengths. At her last preparation Winx brained them in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks at Doomben, unleashing her trademark turn of speed to launch from eighth at the 400m and win by 3.5 lengths.

She’s a terrific chance.

WS_CoxPlate_Sat_765x214

TIPS:

  1. #8-AROD
  2. #13-HIGHLAND REEL
  3. #11-KERMADEC
  4. #12 PREFERMENT 
  5. #1-CRITERION

BEST BET:

#8-AROD each-way @ $9.00 & $3.00

FIRST 4 & TRIFECTA

Box the top 5 picks. Historically despite what many think this race often carries the largest F4 & Trifecta divi out of the Spring ‘big 3’.

2015 Melbourne Cup: “Big Red” Red Cadeuax to finally win the great race in 2015?

In just 15 days time Australia’s most loved Pommie ever, RED CADEAUX, the “Big Red” will line up for his 5th Melbourne Cup start still looking for his first win in the race, but he’s no failure he’s one of the most adored race horses in the world having running second in Australia’s greatest race on 3 occasions – the most by any horse in the long esteemed history of the Melbourne Cup.

Such is Australia’s love for the Ed Dunlop trained stayer, Living Legends in trying to make their property his retirement resort when finally his race days are over…

Living Legends, the retirement home for top-class horses, is keen to persuade owner Ron Arculli, the former chairman of the Hong Kong Jockey Club, to at least let him board at the Melbourne venue for part of the year.

Living Legends derives its income through sponsorship from corporate bookmaker Sportsbet and from entry charges to visitors and school groups, and its officials reckon the property, just a couple of kilometres up the road from Melbourne Airport, would be an appropriate spot for a horse with such a Melbourne affinity to spend at least some of his retirement.

Andrew Clarke, the CEO and Veterinary Director of the home for elderly racetrack heroes, says the English-trained horse would be very welcome when he finally retires  and  might encourage a few more visitors to make the journey up the Tullamarine freeway and contribute to its coffers.

“We are working hard on trying to get Red Cadeaux here when he stops racing,” Clarke said. “There is a facility being built at Newmarket in England [where he is trained] and he has been promised there. But he has such a huge following here our suggestion is for him to spend six months there and six months here,” said Clarke.

He may have reached veteran status but Emirates Melbourne Cup regular Red Cadeaux continues to defy his advancing years and was the subject of a glowing endorsement by the man who knows him best on Thursday morning.

Now nine, Red Cadeaux will tackle his fifth Melbourne Cup at Flemington on November 3 and, with less weight to carry than when runner-up for a third time last year, Robin Trevor-Jones believes he can go close once more.

“Red Cadeaux has thrived,” said Trevor-Jones, right-hand man to Red Cadeaux’s Newmarket trainer Ed Dunlop and who regularly overseas the horse’s trips abroad.

Speaking after watching Red Cadeaux do a gentle canter at Werribee racecourse, he added: “He didn’t lose any weight on the flight and I can’t see any reason why he can’t do it again.

“Last year he was carrying more weight than ever before and ran it quicker than ever before.”

On the decision not to give him a prep run this year, Trevor-Jones said: “It would just take too much out of him and for me to get him back to where we want him in just two weeks might be just too quick and we’re not taking that chance.”

Let’s hope the mighty “Big Red” can finally win the Melbourne Cup in 2015, who would begrudge that?

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