Triple J Hottest 100 Betting Preview
Today represents a celebration of both music and democracy as millions of Australians gather around the Wireless and find out what has made the cut in Triple J’s Hottest 100.
We break down the contenders in our Hottest 100 betting market and we are confident we’ve found a couple of sneaky chances at juicy odds.
Triple J Hottest 100 Overall Betting
First things first, it’s not going to be thank u, next by Ariana Grande, which is at $101 in our market even though we all know that it should be a contender.
This year’s edition of the countdown is highly competitive and comes down to about six songs (many of them from Australian artists) that are in the mix.
Brisbane singer/rapper’s track Groceries has proven popular with the Triple J audience over the past year and is a rank outsider at $34.
There’s also Gold Coast singer Amy Shark’s – I Said Hi which has had not only a fair run on Triple J but has been on high rotation on commercial radio and will poll highly but at the $9 not high enough to be top of the pops.
Dance track “Losing it” by Fisher has also been considered a “banger” by the cool kids and could be considered a good chance at $ 6.50, but historically dance acts don’t get in the top 5 – with the exception of Flume in recent years.
Keeping in with the slow-track singer/songwriter trend, Cronulla girl Ruby Fields and her song “Dinosaurs” has featured in many people’s Hottest 100 votes when being shared on social media and could be a late bolter at $8.
The market favourite is currently Sydney band Ocean Alley with their track “Confidence”, which has had a recent groundswell of support on social media and given that people love to get behind an Aussie band to win the countdown is every chance to win at $1.57.
However, while some might be getting on the Ocean Alley bandwagon, it’s Childish Gambino’s track This is America that is the best value to win at $3. The song has had almost half a billion views on YouTube, captures the mood of the moment and the momentum behind the track, has both mainstream and Triple J audience appeal and it should be enough to see it take out this year’s countdown.
Tip: This Is America – Childish Gambino to win Triple J’s Hottest 100 @ $3.00
While some think the song is called “Tell Your Mum I said Hi” and is a tribute to Rove McManus, Amy Shark’s track “I said Hi” is highly likely to go into the top 5 and if it can get boosted to the 3rd spot is good value at $1.80.
The number 1 and number 2 spots are likely to be contested between Childish Gambino and Ocean Alley but are at Winx-like odds in this market so it’s best to think what song will take the number three spot.
Dance Track Fisher – Losing It is also good value at $2 but historically, while dance tracks have polled in the top 10 before they don’t tend to go top three.
Given the mainstream appeal of Amy Shark and influx of votes from non-Triple J listeners, “I Said Hi” has a better chance to get in the top 3.
Tip: I Said Hi – Amy Shark to finish in the Top 3 @ $1.80
Sydney singer/songwriter, Dean Lewis, with those slow acoustic softly sung songs that are all the rage throughout many of the countdown contenders this year is a good chance to poll highly in this year’s countdown with his breakup song “Be Alright”.
Another song that’s had both Triple J and mainstream appeal, expect it to go deep in the Hottest 100 poll and at $2.50 is good value in this market.
Tip: Be Alright – Dean Lewis to finish in the Top 5 @ $2.50
While the likes of Ruby Fields, Amy Shark, Fisher, Dean Lewis and co are all likely to finish in the top 10, it’s the value you need to look for in this market and it’s best to avoid Australian artists when it comes to wanting to get a decent return.
For this, you would need to look for a song that will finish around the 7-10 mark and in our market, it’s a head to head contest between English bands Bring Me the Horizon and The Wombats.
The Wombats track “Turn” is good value at $2 to get a top 10 finish but it’s the popularity based on YouTube views and airplay that should see Bring Me the Horizon’s track “MANTRA” sneak into the Top 10.
Tip: MANTRA – Bring Me The Horizon in the Top 10 @ $1.80
Like A Version Songs In Top 100
Getting a Like A Version song into the Hottest 100 is kind of like a free-kick from Triple J to get into the countdown. The song is a cover version and they record it for you and give it instant airplay/exposure.
Like A Version covers have been a regular feature of recent countdowns such as the 2016 Hottest 100 when cover versions of songs by Cher, Beyonce and Rihanna featured in the countdown, a feat you wouldn’t have predicted in previous countdowns.
Nonetheless, Like A Version is much of a staple of Triple J as the station itself and there has been some amazing covers over the years.
The market currently suggests that two Like A Version songs are going to feature in this year’s hottest 100 at $1.15. The suspect songs are Nothing But Thieves cover of Gang of Youth’s song “What Can I Do If The Fire Goes Out?” and Ocean Alley’s cover of 1970’s classic “Baby Come Back” by Player.
While both songs may gain a spot in the countdown, perhaps only one Like A Version will feature and is good to take at the $7 price.
Tip: One Like A Version Song in the Hottest 100 @ $7
Australian Tracks In Top 10
To sound like a footy commentator going through player names as plurals you’ve got your Amy Sharks, your Ocean Alleys, Your Ruby Fields’s, Dean Lewis’ and these types of Aussie artists who are going to most likely poll in the top 10.
While we are predicting an American artist to finish at number one, there will be plenty of good local bands at the business end of the countdown.
Expect around seven to eight tracks to be in the Top 10, and at $3.75 seven Australian artists in the top 10 makes for excellent value.
Tip: Seven Australian Artists in the Hottest 100 Top 10 @ $3.75