By Mitch Fenton

WEB: www.weekendking.com.au

TWITTER: www.twitter.com/weekendkingrace

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bookie board.jpg

 

In short, the best advice I can offer to any aspiring professional / successful punter is to find, and then back horses that represent good value. Whilst avoiding backing horse’s that are bad value. Professional’s do not get downhearted if they miss backing a winner, if they have it marked as bad value in the market place. VALUE, VALUE, VALUE!

Some smarties will say “you can’t eat value”, well to those I’ll say if you back very poor valued runners constantly, sooner or later you won’t be eating at all, you’ll be broke.

Any form of gambling in its simplest sense is a game of mathematics, but it’s no algebra or Pythagoras’s Theorem, it’s probability and basic statistics.

To become more successful as a punter or too take the huge plunge and become a professional gambler (a successful, long lasting one) you need to understand and analyse this game of maths when placing any wager.

BB

DECIMAL ODDS

&

ACTUAL IMPLIED PROBABILITY THOSE ODDS REPRESENT

1.2 = 83.33%

1.22 = 81.97

1.25 =80%

1.28 = 78.13%

1.3 =76.92%

1.33 = 75.19%

1.35 =74.07%

1.36 = 73.53%

1.4 = 71.43%

1.44 = 69.44%

1.45 = 68.97%

1.47 = 68.03%

1.5 = 66.67%

1.53 = 65.36%

1.57 = 63.69%

1.6 3 = 62.5%

1.62  = 62.5%

1.63 = 65.36%

1.66 = 60.24%

1.7 = 58.82%

1.72 = 58.14%

1.8 = 55.56%

1.83 = 54.64%

1.9 = 52..36%

1.91 = 52.36%

1.95 = 51.28%

2 = 50%

2.05 =48.78%

2.1 = 47.62%

2.2 = 45.45%

2.25 = 44.44%

2.3 = 43.48%

2.38 = 42.02%

2.4 = 41.67%

2.5 6= 40%

2.6  = 38.46%

2.63  = 38.02%

2.7 = 37.04%

2.75 = 36.36%

2.8 = 35.71%

2.88 = 34.72%

2.9 = 34.48%

3 = 33.33%

3.1 = 32.26%

3.13 = 31.95%

3.2 = 31.25%

3.25 = 30.77%

3.3 = 30.3%

3.38 = 29.59%

3.4 = 29.41%

3.5 = 28.57%

3.6 = 27.78%

3.75 = 26.67%

3.8 = 26.32%

4 = 25%

4.2 = 23.81%

4.33 = 23.09%

4.5 = 22.22%

4.6 = 21.74%

5 = 20%

5.5 = 18.18%

6 = 16.67%

6.5 = 15.38%

7 = 14.29%

7.5 = 13.33%

8 = 12.5%

8.5 = 11.76%

9 = 11.11%

9.5 = 10.53%

10 = 10%

11 = 9.09%

 

ODDS: The probability of an event happening

 

Not form, not barrier, not jockey, not trainer……The single most important element when betting on a horse is its odds of winning.

These odds represent the “implied probability” percentage of a horse winning, if the betting market is 100% accurate which it very rarely – in fact never is – as there’s 1,002,8762,981 and counting number of elements that decide the winner of any horse race, most of which are complete unknown quantities and can’t be quantified…. For instance, what is the official probability of a horse jumping out of the stalls, standing in a hole and breaking its leg? It’s impossible know!

So if the betting markets are never completely accurate this creates opportunities for punters. If the market underestimates a horses winning chances, it creates a situation punters know as “overs”.

Eg. A horse is paying $10 fixed odds (implied % chance of winning =10%) but it’s probability of winning is actually 25% as calculated by you, therefore it’s “true price” is $4.00 & therefore you are getting $6 of “overs.”

It works in reverse the same way. If a horse is actually paying $4.00 (implied winning chance of 25%) but you’ve calculated it as a $10 chance (10% chance of winning) your taking $6 of “unders” if you back it at the $4.00 on offer.

The ultimate key’s to winning on the punt, are assessing the “true prices” as accurately as possible, either yourself using a rating’s system or using an automated tool that does this for you and then you play a simple game of percentages.

You back the horses that are “overs” & represents value….. and steer well clear of horses that are “unders” & represent a distinct lack of value.

 

BOOKIES BAG.jpg

 

~VALUE~

IS THE GOLDEN WORD TO WINNING

 

If you’re backing horses at good value or “overs”, in the long run, that pendulum will swing in your favor and you’ll make a profit on turnover.

However, if you’re consistently backing horses that are bad value or “unders”, you’ll record a loss on your betting figures.

The real skill is accurately assessing the “true odds” of a horse. So work with a system and use trial and error until you find one that consistently records good results. There’s a lot of rating’s services on offer, try them and see which one works best …

This is how professionals operate. They “scrape the fat” off the betting market by backing horses at over’s and laying horses at under’s. A good return for a professional punter is 10-20% profit on turnover per annum.

It’s a tough way to make a living but it can be done and create a great lifestyle.

lucia valentina matriarch