Better performance last week with a couple of our more fancied runners saluting but we were still

let down by some shocking rides. That is probably the biggest risk betting on Brisbane races, the

quality of hoop engaged. We really have a poor selection of riders to choose from so you are let

down more often than not. The only two riders you can really depend on are Tim Bell and Damian

Browne which is a bit sad. That’s why you will see majority of favourites going around with an

apprentice on board. The kids ride as well as most the senior jockeys, and if you can get 3kg off then

you lose nothing and gain everything by putting them on. L Dittman looks in for a big day tomorrow

with a super book of rides. Enough of the rant from me – lets get into it.

The weather has been good here all week and even with a small amount of rain I expect us to be on

a good track tomorrow. Rail is 3.5m the circuit which isnt too bad so most horses should be given a

chance, however, as we know with Doomben it really favours the on speed runners.

R1 – F&M Class 6 to kick things off. No. 5 Lesley’s Choice hasn’t been seen since her 6L romp back in

May in the midweeks. Im not sure why they have kept her out so long as she has been a nominator

and acceptor over the past 3 weeks without running – maybe they were just waiting for the right

race / competition / barrier etc and she has got it here. Barrier 1, 3kg claimer and a good track. I

think she will jump and lead from the cherry and prove very hard to catch. She maybe a touch short

at the moment at $2.50 but you certainly don’t want to back anything to beat her. There looks to be

a good amount of pace in the race so Im certainly not declaring her. No.9 Aerobar is up from Sydney

for Gerald Ryan. This 3yo filly has drawn wide so will look to press forward form barrier 9 and I

expect her to get across and sit outside the leader eventually. We could see No.10 Khalessi and No.3

Anasheed both push forward to try and hold her out, especially with the claimers on both, so that

would see Aerobar having to do a stack of work to get to the front with the fave. Who knows, those

4 could go silly but No.5 Lesley’s Choice will do the least amount of work and the apprentice on is

quite smart so might even look to box seat if they do go silly. No.4 Doula and No. 8 Widow’s Walk

will both relish the tempo up front and it would not shock to see either grab the fave late as she

hasn’t raced for almost 6 weeks so could feel the pinch at the end of 1200m. Tough little race to

begin.

Selections – 5/8/4/9

Suggested bet – box quinella 5/8/4/9

Confidence – 70%

R2 – another class six over 1200m this time for the boys. Pretty average class 6 if you ask me and

certainly a race to look for some value as there are multiple winning chances. No6. Headwater

Country looks like he will cross from wide and lead them up. Looks to be the only natural leader in

the race so the pace could be a lot slower than we see from the first race. No7. Flamboyer will press

forward from out wide and should find the fence first and hand up to No.6 Headwater Country.

No11. Suit and No. 9 On The Deck should find a nice spot close up but the pace, as mentioned, looks

to be only moderate and we could see a sprint home. No.4 Big Decision might look to take up a first

4 position but I see no problems for these 5 mentioned finding a good position. Favourite No.10 Mr

Jetset has drawn barrier 1 but gets back in his races and at Doomben I think he will find himself 3 or

4 pairs back on the rail and in an awkward spot, so I am willing to take it on. Another horse I have

plenty of time for is No.12 Three Beers Please – has a handy record and was super last start here

about a month ago. The month off concerns me, especially with the step up in grade, so it might

need the run but it also wouldn’t shock as the horse he beat, Storm Fighter, franked that form on

Wednesday. I’m selecting No.11 Suit on top as an each-way bet, just because I think it will get a

good spot in the run and has some pretty handy form from when it was in Sydney against G1

performed Generalife and a few other handy types.

Selections – 11/9/7/6

Suggested bet – each way No.11 Suit ($5.50 and $2 UBET)

Confidence – 50%

R3 – a real plodders staying race here – Im sure most smart punters will turn it over to the footy

while this race is on. Im not going to bother with the speed map here but I can say I think the

favourite, No.10 More Energy is a false favourite. A 4yo Fastnet Rock which doesn’t bode well for a

2200m race. As well it is stepping up to the distance from a 1600m race which doesn’t profile well

either. Almost pinched it last start at big odds but there is no way you can take $3.20 about this

thing. If you made me bet on the race I would back No.2 Kobi Creek who looked home last time out

or No.7 Kaiser Franz who flogged them last start but doesn’t go as well on the firmer surface. My

real tip though is save your money for later in the day.

Selections 7/2/10/12

Suggested bet – don’t bet

Confidence – 25%

R4 – another race with little interest – a 2yo winter race in Brisbane. There is a couple of handy ones

here so probably a little more quality than we have seen recently. As with all 2yo races the pace

should be good. No.14 Certain Ellie should lead from barrier 1. Had trialled really well in June, albeit

on a heavy, so I think on top of the ground she wont be good enough. No.4 Monaco Playboy should

come out fast and may look to lead / sit outside the 14 if it is leading. No.1 Jam Toast should work to

the front from his middle barrier and sit just behind them. No.7 Most Important should box seat

behind the leader and No2. Dram of Red should get a lovely run behind the front four. I would like

Byrne to have him one off the fence though as being in traffic as a 2yo isnt ideal but I have a feeling

the horse will be 3 pairs back on the rail. If Byrne can get No. 2 Dram of Red off the fence I think it

wins, but at $2.70 currently I think it’s a bit skinny given the risk it might find trouble at Doomben. It

looks like No.12 Flamenco could be the value runner here. Drawn beautifully in barrier 4 I expect

Colless to have it 3 pairs back on the outside and assuming the pace is good it should work nicely

into the straight and have last crack at them. It’s a good each-way bet especially being a 2yo race.

Selections 12/2/7/8

Suggested bet – each-way No.12 Flamenco ($9 and $3 UBET), saver No.2 Dram of Red

Confidence – 70%

R5 – small group of sprinters going around again. No.5 Tiger Dimejan was injured this week and has

been retired to be served by Better Than Ready, so there goes a heap of speed in the race. Last race

we declared No.1 Rocky King the best on the card, but was he pestered more than expected by No.

3 The Storeman and really didn’t show a lot of ticker in the straight – he also missed the start slightly

which didn’t help. Similar runners going around here with one quality addition in the form of ex

Sydney galloper No.7 Knight Templar. The map should look the same as 2 weeks ago. No.1 Rocky

King will come across from the wide gate and No.3 The Storeman will press up from his inside

barrier. No.2 Seeking More will do a carbon copy of last run and just sit on the fence behind these

two getting the soft run. No.7 Knight Templar should get into the 1-1 if No.6 My Quilter doesn’t

show enough speed. I see no reason why No.2 Seeking More cant repeat last starts effort and at $3

is about the right price. I will be more than ropable if No.1 Rocky King jumps and leads all the way

for a win, but from out wide again we are hopeful it should get the stitch late.

Selections – 2/1/7/3

Suggested bet – win bet No.2 Seeking More ($3 UBET)

Confidence – 90%

R6 – tough race over the mile here for the One Metro Win brigade. No.12 Tracey’s Angel looks to

lead (although no jockey announced yet so it could be a non runner) with the roughie No.17 Union

also coming across. I cant see a lot of moves happening here so some of these more fancied runners

will need to go back from their wide gates or will need to put some speed on. No.15 Lordag looks to

get the box seat on the fence behind the speed and No.6 Budget Bender will get to the 1-1. Another

race lacking speed on so should be a sprint home here. No.15 Lordag looked home for all money last

time out and now he has drawn the right barrier I think he will win it. No.6 Budget Bender wont be

far off. Had No. 9 In The Genes drawn a barrier I would have declared it but I just cant see it getting

into a spot from barrier 17 and don’t think there will be enough pace on for it to come from the tail.

Selections – 15/6/9/12

Suggested Bet – each-way No.15 Lordag – ($5 and $2 UBET)

Confidence – 80%

R7 – good field of runners here over the 1350 Open Handicap. No.12 Faultless Dancer and No.7

Platinum State will both work to the lead and set a decent pace. No.8 Steel Zip should get to the box

seat behind the pace and No.11 Our Boy Nicholas should find the 1-1 with No.1 Riva De Lago on his

back. We backed him a couple of weeks ago with no luck and with slight luck in running I think No.1

Riva De Lago should be winning this. Drawn much better this time, 3kg claimer and a good track as

well. I’m willing to take on the fave here, No.2 Real Surreal, as there are a couple of things against

her. She’s drawn a bit deep so may get posted wide or need to go back. Also, Cahill is not a good

jockey and I have no faith in him getting her into the right spot. She could be a good thing beaten

tomorrow.

Selections – 1/11/8/2

Suggested Bet – No.1 Riva De Lago each-way ($4.80 and $1.95 UBET)

Confidence – 80%

R8 – we finish the day with the 3yo’s. Had No.10 Golden Falls drawn a barrier I would have made it

my best on the card, but we are going to need a bit of luck here. She has drawn 17 but comes into 11

with emergencies out. Colless managed to get her home well from 14 over the T/D last time so he is

certainly capable. She goes back and will need luck and speed on so the $2.60 at the moment looks

really short for my liking but I still think she wins. Be weary of any bias and if its leader dominated

steer clear. She is the best in the race but the barrier is a huge concern. No.3 Elusive Catch was our

best on the card last week but a Paul Hammersley shocker saw her run 3rd. Also drawn wide so we

won’t be on her this week and No.1 Lucky Tom has also drawn wide. He is a go forward horse so I

think he might be able to get to the lead / outside of it by the bend as the speed doesn’t look like it

will be too fierce. Still, those three runners all need luck in running. No.8 Duporth Jack has been

racing super and looks like he should get to a lovely spot in running. Looks to be in career best form

and given the barriers all the other fancied runners have drawn then I would be taking this guy each-

way as well as the favourite. Personally a race I wont get involved in as there are too many good

horses have drawn wide – it just makes for too much uncertainty in the race.

Selections – 10/8/1/18

Suggested bet – win bet No.10 Golden Falls (top tote) and small each-way No.8 Duporth Jack ($21

and $5.50)

Confidence – 50%

Best Bet – R5 No.2 Seeking More

Best Each-Way – R6 No.15 Lordag

Best Roughie – R8 No.8 Duporth Jack