Brisbane form analyst Robbie K. is back again this week to preview tomorrow’s card of racing at the Sunshine Coast, with the feature being the 3200m Queensland Cup.
Not the best start for readers last week. We were very unlucky as we had our maps right but a few of the runners definitely ran below par. We cant win them all so lets get back into it to see if we can find some value this weekend in what seems a very tricky card at the Sunshine Coast.
The weather in Brisbane has been beautiful all week, however the official track rating at the Sunshine Coast on Friday is a Heavy 8 – so we will look at doing the form in the Soft 6/7 range. The rail is in the true position and that will give us a very fair racing surface – the fairest track in Queensland in my opinion. We have some big fields to deal with late in the day which makes finding winners all the more hard but lets get stuck into it.
Race 1 – we start the day with a F&M Class 6 Handicap. Doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed however No.8 Ellawisdon and No.13 Revacious look like they will need to press forward from their outside draws. No.6 Athena Fire and No. 5 Water Kiss look like they should get very good runs off the back of those two and may even press forward a little to make them work. Anyone who saw the win of No. 3 Elusive Catch last start at the Gold Coast would have been super impressed and this runner should get a dream run 3 or 4 pairs back from the good draw. No Zac Purton on to steer today but the “Hammer” is more than capable of getting him into a good spot and presenting at the right time. No.2 Sister Emma has been racing in harder races than this but has no form and looks unders after opening favourite.
Selections – 3/2/6/1
Suggested Bet – win bet No. 3 Elusive Catch ($3.20 UBET)
Confidence – 80%
Race 2 – you will all soon start to realise I am not a fan of 2yo racing (especially after the $60 pop wining last week) and this race is no exception. No.1 Real Good has opened favourite but I think its another one we can take on. Nothing suggests he is looking for 1400m and throw in top weight (even with the claim), the wide draw and a wet track – I think he is almost the lay of the day. I think there are 3 winning chances. No. 2 Supreme Jet, No. 5 Fiery Heights and No. 10 Halls Creek. No. 2 Supreme Jet has come down from North Qld and he should relish the wide open spaces of the Sunshine Coast, similar to Rockhampton, where he is coming off a thumping win. Never raced on a wet track so this is the unknown but the breeding suggests he will get through it ok. In form jockey and a good draw a big plus. No.5 Fiery Heights has finished runner up both starts but looks to have plenty of talent. The big tick is he is proven in the wet (a big plus for 2yo form analysis) and has the gun draw as well (another important factor in picking a 2yo winner). However, Im actually going to select No. 10 Halls Creek on top for a bit of value. Won two trials leading into his debut and comes out of a pretty strong race you would think from Ipswich Cup Day. His most impressive trial win was on the soft 6 and he won that by 2L so should get through the ground ok. He has drawn a little wide for my liking but comes into barrier 10 after emergencies come out and at $7 is an great each-way bet.
Selections – 10/2/5/15
Suggested Bet – each-way bet No.10 Halls Creek ($7 UBET)
Confidence – 50%
Race 3 – on the second favourite in this one – No.1 Addictive Habit. Looks to get all the favours here, a good draw, 3kg claimer and conditions to suit. Was pretty good last time out at Ipswich and isnt racing anything better here – in fact its probably easier. No.6 Avalanches will do what he does best and lead them up as there appears to be no other natural leaders in the race. He might even look the winner at one stage but the long straight is not in his favour. No.3 Hi Son should get a lovely run on his outside or may even be able to slot in behind the leader. The rest of the map is hard to pick as most are get back horses. I don’t think No.1 Addictive Habit will let the leaders get too far away so I expect him to be racing in the first 4. He will grind away down the straight and just prove too good for these. If we had a dry track I think the favourite, No.2 Epic, would be winning, but he doesn’t like the soft so I can’t have him.
Selections – 1/2/6/4
Suggested bet – win bet No.1 Addictive Habit – ($4.40 UBET)
Confidence – 80%
Race 4 – very tough race here with many winning chances. Too many chances to make it a betting race in my opinion but if you feel like a punt then following the market late could be the best option. No. 6 Zaha’s Ace looks to get the lead. Was pretty poor first up but is 2/2 2nd up and also goes well in the soft going. At her best will be very hard to beat but would need to improve on her last run. No.5 Rock Royalty looks to sit outside the leader and wont challenge for the lead. No.1 Excellantes should box seat in 3rd behind the leader and No.3 Aussies Love Sport should get into the one-one spot but No.2 Double Impact may try and keep it out. If I had to bet I think No.5 Rock Royalty will prove too strong for the mare but any of the top 4 in betting would not shock.
Selections – 5/6/1/3
Suggested bet – win bet No.5 Rock Royalty ($3.50 UBET)
Confidence – 50%
Race 5 – Another tricky race with many runners in form. Going with the favourite again here in the form of No.5 Feltre. Drawn perfectly in barrier 4 and should get the gun run 2 or 3 pairs back, one off the rail. 5 starts on the soft for 2 wins and 3 places, loves the track, loves the distance and is in form. Just wins surely. This is up in class but winning form is good form. Outside of this runner there is plenty of value. Without naming them all numbers 2/3/7/8/13/15/16 all have talent and all can win this. However, Im going with the one in form drawn to get the gun run. Quaddie punters I would do two quaddies, first one singling out this fave and another with all the other numbers with a smaller % as it could blow out.
Selections – 5/2/8/16
Suggested bet – win bet No.5 Feltre ($4.40 UBET)
Confidence – 95%
Race 6 – get the dart board out for this one. 3200m races in Queensland are as scarce as compliments for Paul Gallen. No.1 Lovesthebeaches will lead and lead for a long time. Last time out in Sydney in the Stayers Cup it had about a 20L lead at one stage and I expect something similar here. We know it can run the trip and we know it will be in front so those are both positives in my opinion. Given the small field I wouldn’t be surprised to see Indian file for the first half of the race before we see some moves made. The interesting runner is the import, No.3 Mister Impatience, being sent up from his Melbourne stables. Clearly he is a plodder and needs the trip so I expect him to be able to run it out well and being European the soft shouldn’t be an issue either. No.4 Husson Eagle is super consistent and should see out the trip after his 3rd to No.1 Lovethebeaches in the Stayers Cup. Loves so moisture in the ground and surely one of those three win it. If you made me pick one then I’ll pick No.1 Lovesthebeaches given it will look the winner at some stage, but probably a race for exotics. The favourite, No.2 Major Major, seems to have lost his form and I couldn’t go near him at $3 after running 7 of 10, 13 of 13 and 6 of 12. Put it in your quaddie but no value or confidence to back this runner. And finally No.5 Pop N’ Scotch is well bred and will see out the trip but form on soft is woeful so can’t have it.
Suggested bet – boxed quinella 1/3/4
Confidence – 25%
Race 7 – keep those darts handy, another tough race. Given there are 24 acceptances and over 1000m, you would expect there to be plenty of speed in the race. In fact I have 7 horses all pressing forward from there barriers in numbers 3/4/10/11/12/13/15 so clearly we need to look for someone running on. One horse who I have plenty of time for is No. 2 Beau Jet. Impressive all around record winning 4/8 and has won 2/3 starts here over this track and distance. Will get a lovely run behind the speed jumping from barrier 5 and will be able to wind up with 200m to go and get over the top of them. The only other runner I could consider is No. 1 I Am Boss who will also get a lovely run from barrier 1. Should be able to be close to them behind the speed and without doing too much work and, if presented at the right time, could be the one to beat also. However at $7.50 No.2 Beau Jet is a great each-way bet.
Selections – 2/1/13/14
Suggested Bet – Beau Jet each way ($7.50 UBET)
Confidence – 70%
Race 8 – another 24 acceptances in this one. And another 1000m dash home – the BRC really arent making my job easy this week. I suspect No.3 Lesley’s Choice might be scratched given the barrier and Luke Dittman being named on both Edmonds runners. That changes the map completely if it does come out cause she looked the obvious leader and looked tough to beat. But given the other Edmonds runner also is on the speed Im going to assume it wont run here. If it does – its every chance and include. Anyway, another big field will see speed come from No.2 Glenbawn Dame and No.13 Time To Exceed. No.17 Bush Caviar is every chance to be a $101 pest as well. No.13 Time to Exceed should get to the front and I am hoping Dittman slots the favourite in behind her getting the soft run from the good draw. I’m expecting another fast run race and although No.13 Time to Exceed is coming off 5 wins on the trot as well as barrier trial wins, I think she might be a little soft at the end of the race and the favourite should prove too strong for her having the three runs under her belt. No.14 Hallside Road and No.15 My Bling both look to have good runs just off the speed but both are up in class and don’t think they are ready for this level just yet. Include both if going for a wide quaddie.
Selections – 2/13/14 /15
Suggested Bet – win bet No.2 Glenbawn Dame ($3.60 UBET) – will shortened a lot if the 3 comes out.
Confidence – 90%