Saturday’s feature race is the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes at Caulfield. A field of 13 have accepted for the $150,000 1100m feature, the market is dominated by the toppy Lord of the Sky.
Here’s our full in-depth preview of the race.
|LORD OF THE SKY||Robbie Laing||Damien Oliver||11||58.5kg|
Group 1 placed at his last 2 outings – Australia’s richest sprint race the TJ Smith Stakes where he was beaten a nose behind Chautauqua getting nailed right on the post at huge odds, in what many considered a fluke run.However he proved it was no such fluke producing another great effort in the Goodwood, where he was left in front a long way from home and just got run over late.
He loves Caulfield where he’s won 5 of 8, and the 1100m holds no fears anymore like it once did, He’s drawn poorly in barrier 11 but he’s fast enough out of the traps to cross down and sit outside Minaj who is the likely leader drawn barrier 3. Even if Olli has to sit 3 deep the trip, I don’t think it’ll matter because he’s got such a significant class edge and is perfectly placed under WFA conditions.
He’s a good thing and I think the $1.80 that’s on offer is a pinch.
|RIZIZ||Ken Sweeney||Craig Newitt||10||58.5kg|
South Australian trained galoper who is as honest as the day is long.
Has had 5 runs this campaign including a solid 2.5L , 2nd in the RN Irwin Stakes at Morphettville back in March behind Daytona Grey. He then went onto the Goodwood – the same race Lord of the Sky was 2nd in, and despite officially running 16th of 17, he was only beaten 6L in a blanket finish. He was 5.8L off Lord of the Sky that day, so it’s hard to fathom how he’ll turn the tables on that result all being equal.
1100m is short of his best but he’s sure to give some cheek out up toward the lead.
|SEA LORD||Stephen Brown||Ms Linda Meech||6||58.5kg|
Won an open handicap at Moonee Valley last time out but did have the luxury of only having to cary 52kg after the claim. He bounced straight on the bunny that day and gave nothing else a look in winning comfotably.
Is a Group 2 winner of the Australian Stakes, but that was at Moonee Valle,y his home away from home. He’s had 8 goes at Caulfield for just 1 minor placing, so it’s fait to assume he doesn’t handle the ‘quirkily’ configured track too well at all.
Will likely roll forward from gate 6 but in a race where there looks to be plenty of pressure on up front I think he’ll find this race a bit too rich.
|PAGO ROCK||David Hayes & Tom Dabernig||Steven Arnold||1||58.5kg|
Rising 8 year old who has a terrific 1100m record of 5 wins and a 2nd from 11 tries.
Has had 4 runs this prep, all solid efforts, without ever looking like winning. Was runner up behind the subsequent Group 1 placed Lumosty on the 9th of May at Flemington beaten 3L, and he was also beaten 3L behind Lumosty at his next start. That form is pretty handy, but he doesn’t win often and in such a hot Gr3 race I doubt he will be winning here either.
|OUR NKWAZI||Shawn Mathrick||Danny Adam||2||58.5kg|
Totally outclased at this grade. He’s had 3 runs back this campaign for a 6th, a win and another 6th. The latest effort was 6th beaten 5.7L behind Sea Lord who as I’ve already stated has no hope in the race, so that just about sums it up.
|HEART OF A LION||Lloyd Kennewell||Joe Bowditch||8||58.5kg|
Adelaide visitor who has been very well tried in pre-post markets firming up from $26 into $14. He’s had 8 runs in a long campaign that started in February, but he seemingly is getting better the further he goes into the prep. In his last 5 runs he’s had 4 wins and a placing so he’s racing in a very rich vein of form.
The wins however have come in Benchmark races and he faces a stiff class rise here, but he’s racing in the form of his life and the punters who got the 25/1 are a great chance of collecting the place dividend, but can’t see him winning.
~~ SCRATCHED ~~
|ANATINA||Robert Smerdon||Chris Parnham||5||56.5kg|
Group 1 placed in the Galaxy as a 3 year old when she looked as though she had the world at her feet. But since that day she hasn’t been a shadow of her former self. Comes here 2nd up & At her best she’d go very close to winning this but it’s hard to recommend her on what she’s shown in her last couple of preps. She was lame first up post-race so that’s forgivable.
She’s some sneaky hope if there happens to be a chink in the favourites armour.
|ANGELS BEACH||Peter G Moody||Luke Nolen||9||56.5kg|
Lightly raced 5 year old mare having just start number 15, who on her day has an explosive turn of foot.
This is her 3rd run back from a break. 1st up she was disappointing as a short priced favourite although she did end up running 2nd. She lead unchallenged and they absolutely crawled in front, so she was entitled to kick on and win but she didn’t quicken at all.
2nd up she went north to Randwick, where again after getting a good run in transit she failed to fire a shot in the run home, maybe if you want to clutch at an excuse you could say she’s not 100% at home on the wet, which she faced that day.
Back on top of the ground is a big plus, but I’m prepared to knock her completely and despite being 2nd favourite give her no hope of winning.
|MINAJ (NZ)||Lee & Anthony Freedman||Ben Melham||3||56.5kg|
A speedy jump and run mare who possesses a very high cruising speed.
Has been terrific in all 5 runs this preparation with the Freedman boys having her going better than ever.
1st up she was a length and a half of Gr1 Platelet over 955m at the Valley.
2nd up she lead until the shadows before being gunned down by her opponent again here Miss Promiscuity.
She then went across to Adelaide and was third to Thermal Current in the Gr 3 McKay Stakes over this trip of 1100m.
She again lead them up in the Gr3 Proud Miss Stakes and was only defeated 3L by Hazard who raced so well in Brisbane during the winter, winning the Dane Ripper Stakes so that form is handy. She just doesn’t run a strong 1200m.
Last time out at Moonee Valley over 1000m it was a complete forgive run, as she had to burn across from the outside gate to lead and ran along in a time 1.2L quicker than average all whilst carrying 58kg.
From gate 3 there’s no doubt she’ll lead and be the one to catch and I think she’ll run a good race. I can’t see he turning over the favourite but she is my exacta horse in the race.
|MISS PROMISCUITY||David Hayes & Tom Dabernig||Dwayne Dunn||13||56.5kg|
Like Minaj, she has form around Hazard which is pretty handy. In fact she was beaten just a head by the Freedman mare here, 3 starts ago just getting 1kg off her at the weights. She was then runner up in the Gr3 Proud Miss Stakes at Morphettville again behind Hazard beaten just 3/4 of a length after sitting up on the speed.
Forgive her last start at the Valley where she was 8th beaten 3.5L, nothing went right at all. And I do mean nothing! She was slowly away with the 60kg impost and was twice borked for a run – rounding the home turn and then again at the 200m.
She’s drawn out but will no doubt press forward and be in the first half dozen. The blow out runner.
|KLISHINA||David Bourne||Ms Katelyn Mallyon(a)||7||56.5kg|
Out of depth at WFA considering she’s been safely held at her two runs this prep, carrying under the minimum with a claim.
|WILD RAIN||Mark Kavanagh||Glen Boss||4||56kg|
Easy winner last time out at Moonee Valley after getting the gun run in 3rd. The 3 yo filly is well and truly under the odds at $11, stepping up from a fillies and mares benchmark 90 on the minimum weight to Gr3 WFA. Her restricted class form doesn’t warrant her being that short and I don’t give her any possible hope this grade.
The race should just be a 1 act affair in all truthfulness, I think the race a benefit for the toppy Lord of the Sky. He just has panels on them, so even if he does is have a tough run from the bad gate he’s got enough up his sleeve to still be winning. Bet365 are betting $1.95 and for me that’s a steal as I’ve assessed her as a $1.50 chance in the event. Minaj AND Miss Promiscuity will make there own luck up on speed and are capable of willing should something go badly wrong for the favourite, but as it stands they are nice each way bets at their odds.
1.LORD OF THE SKY
If you’re a punter not afraid to have a big whack on a short priced favourite, this is the race for you. Attack #1 Lord of the Sky @ $1.95.
Exotic punters for you I’d suggest a trifecta with #1 Lord of the Sky a banker, from #10 Minaj & #11 Miss Promiscuity boxed up for 2nd and 3rd. That’ll set you back just $2 for 100% of the dividend.