BY SAM WALKER – 29 JUN 2015

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

RESULTS in France, Ireland and Japan caused a number of movers in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe market last week. Let’s take a spin round the world.

FRANCE
Treve is still the Arc favourite and was shortened to a general 5-2 chance after winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud by a cosy length-and-a-quarter on Sunday. She remains the been-there-and-done-it choice.

She won the race last year despite losing all three of her warm-up races and against a backdrop of back and hoof problems. This year things have gone swimmingly with two cosy wins from two starts, so bookies may be right to go short odds on the budding history maker.

No horse has ever won three Arcs and considering all her injury problems it would take a brave soul to back her three months out at that price. But who is going to beat her?

On Sunday she always looked in control against the best Arc horses France has to offer. Group 1 regular Flintshire finished second with an RPR of 124.

This was his best run since finishing second in the 2014 Arc. It was also his fifth top-level second place and he remains vulnerable at the very highest level. He was trimmed in places but you can still get 40-1 for the Arc.

Treve posted an RPR of 123 on the weekend. She peaked with a mark of 126 in the Arc last year and she is probably still capable of that sort of figure under ideal circumstances.

Another French fancy for the Arc is New Bay. He didn’t run last week, but Highland Reel (who finished second to him in the Prix du Jockey Club) didn’t do his form any favours in the Irish Derby on Saturday.

IRELAND
The Irish Derby was the big race for three-year-olds last week and it played out like a dream for fans of Golden Horn, who currently ranks a clear second favourite for the Arc at 6-1.

John Gosden’s colt marked himself a superior Derby winner with an RPR of 127 earlier this month and Saturday’s result helped cement his status as the best three-year-old in Europe.

His form boost at the Curragh was very convincing, with Epsom runner-up Jack Hobbs (122) running out an impressive five-length winner from Epsom third Storm The Stars (114).

The rest of the Irish Derby form also worked out in Golden Horn’s favour, as the fourth and sixth from Epsom finished third and fourth at the Curragh, beating Highland Reel, who represented the Prix du Jockey Club form, into fifth.

If you take Golden Horn out of the races Jack Hobbs has contested Gosden’s ‘other horse’ would be unbeaten in five starts and no horse would have got within three lengths of him. Put Golden Horn back in and you’ll see a horse who is a good three lengths superior to Jack Hobbs.

The sort of hierarchy that is building up behind Golden Horn is what you’d expect from a very good horse and once the three-year-olds take on their elders in the coming months he could turn out to be very good indeed.

He runs next in the Eclipse Stakes on Saturday, when he will face some smart older horses like The Grey Gatsby. There’s a chance he will really crank up the pressure on Treve on the weekend and he could be a lot shorter than 6-1 for the Arc by next week.

The only doubt for Golden Horn is whether he will run at Longchamp if the ground is soft or worse. In recent years there have been ten Arcs run on good or better, seven on good-to-soft and ten on soft or worse.

If good-to-soft is acceptable then the odds are clearly in Golden Horn’s favour, but there is simply no telling which way the weather will go and of it turns up heavy he probably won’t run.

JAPAN
The big news out of Japan last week was that Duramente is out for the season. He was the nation’s only realistic chance of a winner in the Arc this year.

There may still be challengers from the east in 2015, but just because they’re from Japan doesn’t mean they are the next Orfevre or Deep Impact.

The fact is that after winning the Satsuki Sho (Guineas) and Tokyo Yushun (Derby), Duramente looked set to run up a sequence in a Japanese middle-distance division that currently lacks a stand out performer.

The Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen on Sunday gave further evidence of the void at the top, with Lovely Day (116) running out an unlikely winner from the even more unlikely placers Denim And Ruby (110) and Shonan Pandora (108) in a tight finish.

Unruly six-year-old Gold Ship was sent off an odds-on favourite, but after rearing in the stalls and losing early ground he was never involved.

In the absence of Duramente it must be very big odds for a Japanese Arc winner this year.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Flintshire 124 Andre Fabre (Fr) (Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, Saint-Cloud, 1m4f, 28 June)
TOP LIST

Name (country trained) Race Rating

1 Shared Belief (US) San Antonio 128D

2 American Pharoah (US) Preakness Stakes 127D

2 Golden Horn (GB) Derby 127T

4 Lankan Rupee (Aus) Black Caviar Lightning 126T

5 California Chrome (US) San Antonio 125D
5 Solow (Fr) Dubai Turf 125T
5 The Grey Gatsby (GB) Prince Of Wales’s 125T

8 Able Friend (HK) Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup 124T

8 Brazen Beau (Aus) Newmarket Handicap 124T

8 Flintshire (Fr) Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud 124T
8 Free Eagle (Ire) Prince Of Wales’s 124T

 

8 Prince Bishop (UAE) Dubai World Cup 124D

TURF

Name (country trained) Race Rating
1 Golden Horn (GB) Derby 127

2 Lankan Rupee (Aus) Black Caviar Lightning 126

3 Solow (Fr) Dubai Turf 125

3 The Grey Gatsby (GB) Prince Of Wales’s 125
5 Able Friend (HK) Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup 124

5 Brazen Beau (Aus) Newmarket Handicap 124

6 Flintshire (Fr) Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud 124
6 Free Eagle (Ire) Prince Of Wales’s 124
6 Gleneagles (Ire) 2,000 Guineas 124

9 Designs On Rome (HK) Centenary Vase 123
9 Duramente (Jpn) Satsuki Sho 123
9 Muhaarar (GB) Commonwealth Cup 123
9 Snow Sky (GB) Hardwicke Stakes 123

9 Treve (Fr) Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud 123
9 Undrafted (US) Diamond Jubilee 123

DIRT

Name (country trained) Race Rating
1 Shared Belief (US) San Antonio 128

2 American Pharoah (US) Preakness Stakes 127

3 California Chrome (US) San Antonio 125

4 Prince Bishop (UAE) Dubai World Cup 124

5 Honor Code (US) Met Mile 123

6 Private Zone (US) Churchill Downs Stakes 122

6 Firing Line (US) Kentucky Derby 122
8 Salutos Amigos (US) Tom Fool Handicap 120

9 African Story (UAE) Al Maktoum Challenge R3 119

9 Copano Rickey (Jpn) Hai Tokai Stakes 
119

9 Private Zone (US) Gulfstream Park Handicap 119
9 Rock Fall (US) True North 119

9 Secret Circle (US) Dubai Golden Shaheen 119

 

VIA

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/world-class-horn-looks-good-for-arc-if-conditions-right/1906458/latest/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews