The 150th Irish Derby will be run later today at Curragh in a race which is thin on numbers but still very high on quality – as Group 1 classics should be.
Here’s a runner by runner analysis of the 8 runners to do battle in the 150th edition of the Irish Derby – Ireland’s most prestigious race at the Curragh.
1.CARBON DATING – 150/1
A 5 start maiden, with just 1 placing in those starts, who is a genuine 150/1 chance in the race.
8th beaten 15L in the Epsom Derby last start and prior to that was last of the 11 to run in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, beaten 11L.
He’s completely out of his depth here and by a long way at that. The only impact he can possible have on the race is to interfere with other runners, which with fingers crossed won’t happen.
An long odds on chance to finish last.
2.GIAVANNI CANALETTO – 8/1
Aidan O’Brien trained Galileo colt who has run well at both his 3 year old appearances.
1st up he was a close-up 2nd behind Curvy in the Gr3 Gallinule Stakes at Curragh, running on stoutly to just miss.
He then went to the Epsom Derby and ran a very credible 4th, albeit beaten a massive 10L by race winner Golden Horn. Golden Horn of course doesn’t run here but the horses who finished 2nd and 3rd in front of him Jack Hobbs and Storm the Stars do. He was 2L off 3rd place getter Storm the Stars and 6.5L off the runner-up Jack Hobbs.
And so while he has significant ground to make up on that pair from Epsom, he is still very much on an upward spiral and is capable of making the necessary improvement required to figure right amongst the finish.
3.HIGHLAND REEL – 4/1
Another Aidan O’Brien trained Galileo colt, who has Ballydoyle’s number 1 hoop Ryan Moore engaged, if that’s some type of lead on stable expectation.
He was undefeated at 2 including a 12L romp on debut followed by a Gr2 win at Goodwood in the Vintage Stakes.
He resumed at 3 in the French 1,000 Guineas at Longchamp failing to fire – finishing a well beaten 6th, 6L off winner Make Believe who didn’t frank that form when he was a terrible flop at Royal Ascot.
He bounced back to something like his best form when a 1.5L 2nd in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) at Longchamp. He improved nicely between his first up and 2nd up runs and if he’s taken any further improvement out of the French run, he’ll be very hard to beat here.
4.JACK HOBBS – 4/5
Godolphin runner who is an Odds on favourite for the race thanks to his terrific 2nd in the Epsom Derby beaten 3.5L behind tear away winner Golden Horn.
He was also beaten soundly by Golden Horn in the Gr2 Dante at York, the main Epsom Derby lead up, so it’s fair to say it has the premiere 3 year old staying form around it this season.
On his seasonal reappearance at Sandown Park he trounced a high quality field by no less than a dozen lengths, so logic suggests with no Golden Horn here, he’ll be winning and winning well and that’s the view I take.
5.KILLIMANJARO – 33/1
6.RADANPOUR – 16/1
Unbeaten Dermot Weld trained colt who could loom as the real wildcard in the race, if in fact there is to be one.
Whilst the colt certainly has a whole lot of scope, and is in the yard of the old master Weld, his latest win in the Listed King George V Cup at Leopardstown was only tradesman like in my opinion and the form behind him from the race isn’t of the highest calibre.
I find it very hard to knock winners and this Sea The Stars colt has won 3/3 but by my assessment he’d have to improve several lengths (which is a slight possibility) to challenge the major fancies here.
7.STORM THE STARS – 8/1
Stuck on terrificly in the Epsom Derby for 3rd last time out – 8L off the winner Golden Horn and 4.5L off runner up and favourite for this race Jack Hobbs. It’s hard to see him turning the tables on that horse here who will be more suited by the undulating Curragh course.
8.QUALIFY – 10/1
The lone filly in the race.
Was a shock 50/1 winner of the Epsom Oaks last time out beating highly fancied O’Brien stablemate Leggatissimo right on the post.
As her Oaks SP would suggest her form leading into the race was very average and it was a tremendous shock to all to see her turn it around and win.
The Oaks win was no fluke, she’s a high quality filly – there’s little doubt about that. It’s very hard to line her form up against the colts but I’m happy to risk her here against some high quality males.
4.JACK HOBBS *****
7.STORM THE STARS
Back #4 Jack Hobbs straight out