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Weekend King Racing

Free Australian & Global Horse Racing Tips + Group 1 race previews

EACH WAY BET OF THE DAY – WEDNESDAY 24 AUGUST 2016

After being a tradgedy beaten on debut, albeit in easier company, it’s only natural to stick with this promising filly today at the big 17/1 Odds on offer. 

WARWICK FARM

RACE 3

#11

BRIGHT LIGHTS BABY

(Each Way)

$17.00 & $5.50


We’ve also got black booked off some very good trial performances in the same race, the Chris Waller stable mate #2 EARTH. Might be worth while to include it in exotics with the #11. 
GOOD PUNTING!!!!


THE KING TIP


NEWCASTLE

RACE 7

#1

ARSONIST

$4.20

Beaumont Newcastle Tips – Tuesday 16 August 2016

Beaumont Newcastle Tips – Tuesday 16 August 2016

BB

RACE 1: 5.LIGHTNING STRIKE $2.70

RACE 2: 7.PYRAMID PRINCE $6.50

RACE 3: 13.STAR OF MONSOON $1.85

RACE 4: 10.AWAKE THE STARS $6.50

RACE 5: 4.MERI RANI $1.90

RACE 6: 5.MON PERE $5.00

RACE 7: 1.ARSONIST $8.00

 

BEST BETS: RACE 3-13 STAR OF MONSOON $1.85

BLACK BOOKERS FOR WEDNESDAY RACING – GET ON AT EARLY PRICES

BLACK BOOKERS FOR WEDNESDAY RACING

 

Race 1 – 3. CALIFORNIA NIKE
BEST ODDS: $6.00
EACH WAY BET
P & P SNOWDEN
Barrier 2
60.5kg (9st 7lb)

17 Aug 16 CANTERBURY   Race 01 – 01:45  1200m – 3y Bm63
[LR: 11 days]
Wins Pl Starts: 1 (100.0%) – 0 (0.0%) – 1
WPS Last 12 mths: 1 (100.0%) – 0 (0.0%) – 1
Good Tracks: no starts
Dead Tracks: no starts
Slow Tracks: no starts
Heavy Tracks: 1 (100.0%) – 0 (0.0%) – 1
All Weather: no starts
Distance +/-: 1 (100.0%) – 0 (0.0%) – 1
Crs & Distance: no starts
Your Black Book Comment:  REGALLY BRED. WOUND UP LATE IN PIECE TO WIN ON DEBUT OVER 1150M AT NEWC. LOVELY LONG STRIDING HORSE CLEARLY GOING TO BE BETTER OVER FURTHER. MIGHT BE DERBY TYPE EVENTUALLY LATER IN SPRING.


Race 4 – 6. ORIENTAL RUNNER
BEST ODDS: $21.00
EACH WAY BET
MICHAEL JOHN FREEDMAN
TYE ANGLAND
Barrier 16
58.0kg (9st 2lb)

17 Aug 16 CANTERBURY   Race 04 – 03:15  1100m – 3y Mdn
Wins Pl Starts: no starts
WPS Last 12 mths: no starts
Good Tracks: no starts
Dead Tracks: no starts
Slow Tracks: no starts
Heavy Tracks: no starts
All Weather: no starts
Distance +/-: no starts
Crs & Distance: no starts
Your Black Book Comment:  Finished off trial at Rosehill 19/7 nicely under very little pressure. Shouldn’t take long to break duck if it can find the right race


Race 4 – 7. SPIRIT AND FIRE
BEST ODDS: $4.40
WIN BET
MICHAEL & WAYNE & JOHN HAWKES
Barrier 2
58.0kg (9st 2lb)

17 Aug 16 CANTERBURY   Race 04 – 03:15  1100m – 3y Mdn
Wins Pl Starts: no starts
WPS Last 12 mths: no starts
Good Tracks: no starts
Dead Tracks: no starts
Slow Tracks: no starts
Heavy Tracks: no starts
All Weather: no starts
Distance +/-: no starts
Crs & Distance: no starts
Your Black Book Comment: had first public outing in Rosehill trial 19/7. Didn’t begin all that well but midway through heat Avdulla gave him a squeeze and he accelerated quickly to take up running. Wasn’t asked to do very much at all in straight but when Avdulla did give hive a tap down he really showed a decent turn off foot. looks quality.

~BEST BLACK BOOKER BET OF DAY~



Race 6 – 8. CRAFTY COP
BEST ODDS: $5.00
WIN BET
MICHAEL & WAYNE & JOHN HAWKES
TOMMY BERRY
Barrier 10
58.0kg (9st 2lb)

17 Aug 16 CANTERBURY   Race 06 – 04:15  1250m – Cg&E Bm72
[LR: 18 days]
Wins Pl Starts: 1 (33.3%) – 1 (33.3%) – 3
WPS Last 12 mths: 1 (33.3%) – 1 (33.3%) – 3
Good Tracks: 1 (33.3%) – 1 (33.3%) – 3
Dead Tracks: no starts
Slow Tracks: no starts
Heavy Tracks: no starts
All Weather: no starts
Distance +/-: no starts
Crs & Distance: no starts
Your Black Book Comment: Clearly clocked the fastest time of the day at Rosehill trials 19/7 and did it with a tonne of gas left in the tank. Led strongly under on steam right on bridle into the straight. Avdulla couldn’t hold him any slower in straight yet he still ran slashing time. Resumed at Caulfield but forget he ever ran. he landed in the box seat but never, ever got a clear crack at the leaders as he was fastened in a zip tied pocket the whole way. Had something to offer. Total forgive effort, might get better odds about him next time as a result of luckless effort.

PUNTING 101: What is your best horse racing advice to help the average punter turn professional or at least become successful ?

By Mitch Fenton

WEB: www.weekendking.com.au

TWITTER: www.twitter.com/weekendkingrace

FACEBOOK: www.facebook.com/weekendkingracing

 

bookie board.jpg

 

In short, the best advice I can offer to any aspiring professional / successful punter is to find, and then back horses that represent good value. Whilst avoiding backing horse’s that are bad value. Professional’s do not get downhearted if they miss backing a winner, if they have it marked as bad value in the market place. VALUE, VALUE, VALUE!

Some smarties will say “you can’t eat value”, well to those I’ll say if you back very poor valued runners constantly, sooner or later you won’t be eating at all, you’ll be broke.

Any form of gambling in its simplest sense is a game of mathematics, but it’s no algebra or Pythagoras’s Theorem, it’s probability and basic statistics.

To become more successful as a punter or too take the huge plunge and become a professional gambler (a successful, long lasting one) you need to understand and analyse this game of maths when placing any wager.

BB

DECIMAL ODDS

&

ACTUAL IMPLIED PROBABILITY THOSE ODDS REPRESENT

1.2 = 83.33%

1.22 = 81.97

1.25 =80%

1.28 = 78.13%

1.3 =76.92%

1.33 = 75.19%

1.35 =74.07%

1.36 = 73.53%

1.4 = 71.43%

1.44 = 69.44%

1.45 = 68.97%

1.47 = 68.03%

1.5 = 66.67%

1.53 = 65.36%

1.57 = 63.69%

1.6 3 = 62.5%

1.62  = 62.5%

1.63 = 65.36%

1.66 = 60.24%

1.7 = 58.82%

1.72 = 58.14%

1.8 = 55.56%

1.83 = 54.64%

1.9 = 52..36%

1.91 = 52.36%

1.95 = 51.28%

2 = 50%

2.05 =48.78%

2.1 = 47.62%

2.2 = 45.45%

2.25 = 44.44%

2.3 = 43.48%

2.38 = 42.02%

2.4 = 41.67%

2.5 6= 40%

2.6  = 38.46%

2.63  = 38.02%

2.7 = 37.04%

2.75 = 36.36%

2.8 = 35.71%

2.88 = 34.72%

2.9 = 34.48%

3 = 33.33%

3.1 = 32.26%

3.13 = 31.95%

3.2 = 31.25%

3.25 = 30.77%

3.3 = 30.3%

3.38 = 29.59%

3.4 = 29.41%

3.5 = 28.57%

3.6 = 27.78%

3.75 = 26.67%

3.8 = 26.32%

4 = 25%

4.2 = 23.81%

4.33 = 23.09%

4.5 = 22.22%

4.6 = 21.74%

5 = 20%

5.5 = 18.18%

6 = 16.67%

6.5 = 15.38%

7 = 14.29%

7.5 = 13.33%

8 = 12.5%

8.5 = 11.76%

9 = 11.11%

9.5 = 10.53%

10 = 10%

11 = 9.09%

 

ODDS: The probability of an event happening

 

Not form, not barrier, not jockey, not trainer……The single most important element when betting on a horse is its odds of winning.

These odds represent the “implied probability” percentage of a horse winning, if the betting market is 100% accurate which it very rarely – in fact never is – as there’s 1,002,8762,981 and counting number of elements that decide the winner of any horse race, most of which are complete unknown quantities and can’t be quantified…. For instance, what is the official probability of a horse jumping out of the stalls, standing in a hole and breaking its leg? It’s impossible know!

So if the betting markets are never completely accurate this creates opportunities for punters. If the market underestimates a horses winning chances, it creates a situation punters know as “overs”.

Eg. A horse is paying $10 fixed odds (implied % chance of winning =10%) but it’s probability of winning is actually 25% as calculated by you, therefore it’s “true price” is $4.00 & therefore you are getting $6 of “overs.”

It works in reverse the same way. If a horse is actually paying $4.00 (implied winning chance of 25%) but you’ve calculated it as a $10 chance (10% chance of winning) your taking $6 of “unders” if you back it at the $4.00 on offer.

The ultimate key’s to winning on the punt, are assessing the “true prices” as accurately as possible, either yourself using a rating’s system or using an automated tool that does this for you and then you play a simple game of percentages.

You back the horses that are “overs” & represents value….. and steer well clear of horses that are “unders” & represent a distinct lack of value.

 

BOOKIES BAG.jpg

 

~VALUE~

IS THE GOLDEN WORD TO WINNING

 

If you’re backing horses at good value or “overs”, in the long run, that pendulum will swing in your favor and you’ll make a profit on turnover.

However, if you’re consistently backing horses that are bad value or “unders”, you’ll record a loss on your betting figures.

The real skill is accurately assessing the “true odds” of a horse. So work with a system and use trial and error until you find one that consistently records good results. There’s a lot of rating’s services on offer, try them and see which one works best …

This is how professionals operate. They “scrape the fat” off the betting market by backing horses at over’s and laying horses at under’s. A good return for a professional punter is 10-20% profit on turnover per annum.

It’s a tough way to make a living but it can be done and create a great lifestyle.

lucia valentina matriarch

 

BLACK BOOK SPECIAL – TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2016

BLACK BOOK SPECIAL – TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2016

img_3455

NEWCASTLE BEAUMONT

RACE 3

#13

STAR OF MONSOON

$2.00

NO FANCY ODDS HERE BUT IT’LL BE SHORT AND SWEET AND IF YOU WANT MY TOTALLY HONEST OPINION $2.00 IS FANCY ODDS!

SHOULD BE $1.33!

3 STARTS FOR A SECOND AND A THIRD BUT THE REGALLY BRED LONHRO COLT KEEPS BUMPING INTO GROUP 1 & 2 QUALITY HORSES! SO FAR IN THREE STARTS HIS FINISHED CLOSE UP BEHIND TSOME OF THE LIKES OF DEFCON, KISS AND MAKE UP, TESSERA, DECORATED SOILDER AND OVERSTEP. 

LAST START OVERSTEP GOT THE GUN RUN AND HAD EVERY FAVOUR WHILE STAR OF MONSOON WAS STRUNG UP BACK IN THE PACK. WHEN FINALLY HE GOT CLEAR HE CHARGED TO RUN OVERSTEP TO 1.3L. SHE’S COME OUT SINCE AND RAN A VERY GOOD 2ND BEHIND GUN GODOLPHIN FILLY FLOURASHES, TO FRANK THAT RUN’S FORM.


NO STARS HERE, SO FROM GATE 5 MCEVOY CAN PARK HANDY, GET HER CLEAR ON STRAIGHTENING AND PUT THIS LOT TO THE SWORD! THEN THE $2.00 ON OFFER WILL BE LOOKING HUGE! NO SAYING HOW GOOD SHE REALLY IS, COULD BE GR2 / GR3 CLASS, MAYBE BETTER BUT ONE THING’S FOR SURE IS THIS IS AN EASY KILL IN A MAIDEN ON A TUESDAY AT NEWCASTLE!


NB 16/08/16: IF YOU HAD ANY DOUBTS AT ALL OVER STAR OF MONSOON SALUTING AT THE SHORT BUT SWEETS TODAY, THEY MUST SURELY GONE THE WAY OF THE DODO AFTER WHAT TRAINER GERALD RYAN TOLD ME LIVE FROM HIS ROSEHILL STABLES. HE SAID THE REGALLY BRED COLT WILL WIN TODAY FOR FOR THE HEAD TO MELBOURNE FOR THE GR3?CAULFIELD GUINEAS PRELUDE OVER 1400m. HE’S ULTRA CONFIDENT HE’LL MEASURE UP IN THAT RACE AS HE’S SUGGESTED TO ME HE’LL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE A RUNNER IN THE GROUP 1 CAULFIELD GUINEAS WHERE HE’S CURRENTLY A 40/1 SHOT. RYAN SUGGESTED OUR PUNTERS HAVE A NIBBLE AT THOSE ODDS AS HE FIRMLY BELIEVES THE HORSE IS UP TO THE TASK OF GROUP 1 LEVEL! 💰💰💰💰

img_3453

BEST FUTURE BET – SPRING CARNIVAL 2016

BEST FUTURE BET – SPRING CARNIVAL 2016 OUR BEST FUTURE’S BET FOR THE SPRING DOESN’T COME IN AUSTRALIA AND IT’S SPRING CARNIVAL, IT COMES ODDLY ENOUGH FROM FRANCE. IN THE WOR…

Source: BEST FUTURE BET – SPRING CARNIVAL 2016

BEST FUTURE BET – SPRING CARNIVAL 2016

BEST FUTURE BET – SPRING CARNIVAL 2016

PROTECTIONIST 2014 MELBOURNE CUP
PROTECTIONIST BOLTS IN THE 2014 MELBOURNE CUP DESTROYING HIS RIVALS BY AN EVER WIDENING 4L

OUR BEST FUTURE’S BET FOR THE SPRING DOESN’T COME IN AUSTRALIA AND IT’S SPRING CARNIVAL, IT COMES ODDLY ENOUGH FROM FRANCE.

IN THE WORLD’S RICHEST AND HIGHEST RATED TURF RACE THE PRIX L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE ON SUNDAY THE 2ND OF OCTOBER AT 11:55PM AEST. 

 

BEST FUTURE’S BET OF THE SPRING

ARC DE TRIOMPHE.jpg

PRIX L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE, CHANTILLY, FRANCE

02 OCTOBER 2016

 

PROTECTIONIST

$26.00 & $5.25

(BET 365 MARKET)

 

IN 2014 WHEN PREPARED BY ANDREAS WOHLER, HE BOLTED IN THE MELBOURNE CUP BY 4L, RUNNING THE FASTEST EVER LAST 200M SECTIONAL IN THE 150+ YEAR HISTORY OF THE RACE!

WE ALL KNOW HE WENT OFF THE BOIL WHEN TRAINED IN AUSTRALIA, BUT NOW BACK WITH HIS TRUE MASTER WOHLER HE’S FOUND HIS VERY BEST FORM AGAIN. IN THREE RUNS SINCE GOING BACK TO WOHLER’S GERMAN STABLES HE’S WON A GROUP 3 BY 8L, A GROUP 2 BY 4L & A GROUP 1 BY 3L.

I THINK HE AGAIN IS THE WORLD’S BEST STAYER AND KNOW IT’S OFFICIAL HE’S GOING TO THE ARC AND NOT THE MELBOURNE CUP, I THINK HE’S A HUGE WINNING HOPE AND GREAT ODDS!

protectionist gr1 ger.jpg
PROTECTIONIST BOLTS IN THE 2400M GERMAN GROUP 1 BY 3L EASED RIGHT DOWN AT HOPPEGARTEN

PROTECTIONIST BACK TO BRILLIANT BEST! IS MELBOURNE CUP #2 ON CARDS?

PROTECTIONIST BACK TO DEMONSTRATIVE BEST IN GERMANY!!!!!

THE GROUP 1 €125,000 2016 LONGINES GROSSER PREIS VON BERLIN WINNER IS PROTECTIONIST.

The 2014 Melbourne Cup winner PROTECTIONIST is right back to his very best now, under the training of Andreas Wohler in Germany.

He recorded his 1st Group 1 win since the Cup nearly two years ago, in the 2400m WFA race at Hoppegarten, Germany. 
He won eased down on the line by 3 lengths.

Let’s hope we see him back in Australia for another Melbourne Cup tilt……But sadly it doesn’t appear we will see the champion stayer race in Australia again.

Owner of Australian Bloodstock, Luke Murrell, whose company syndicated Protectionist tweeted; “Might have to enquire about how to get to Deauville (Chantilly) in October #arcdreaming”
Suggesting the star stayer will be aimed at Arc De Triomphe in France in October as opposed to coming to Australia for a tilt at a second Melbourne Cup. The Arc at Chantilly Racecourse in France, is the world’s richest and highest rated turf race annually. It’s run under WFA conditions over 2400m. 

 

Protectionist burst onto the scene and was named the world’s premier stayer when he won the 2014 Melbourne Cup but a stunning 4L margin, whilst trained out of Germany by Andreas Wohler and ridden by Ryan Moore. 

 

After the Cup win the horse was transferred to Kris Lee’s to be trained in Australia…..But after 10 runs in Australia when being locally trained for 10 unplaced finishes, Australian Bloodstock decided to send him back to Germamy and Andreas Wohler.

 

Since going back to Wohler, Protectionist has won 3 from 3. A group 1, a group 2 & a group 3.

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